For the third time in franchise history, the Washington Nationals hold the No. 1 overall selection in the MLB Draft. In the previous two instances, the top pick was a flat-out no-brainer. In 2009, the Nats took San Diego State University right-hander Stephen Strasburg, a man considered by many to be the greatest college pitching prospect in MLB history. A year later, they selected power-hitting phenom Bryce Harper, who by then had already been on the cover of Sports Illustrated.
This time around, the decision for general manager Mike Rizzo and his front office is much, much trickier. That’s because this draft lacks an obvious, no-doubt, generational prospect in the mold of a Harper or a Strasburg.
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With the draft just two weeks away, industry experts are generally unsure about whom Rizzo and Brad Ciolek, the team’s director of amateur scouting, will take. So let’s do our best to handicap their situation and summarize the players who have a chance to be the first name called on July 13.
The favorites
Kade Anderson, LHP, Louisiana State University
His background: A draft-eligible sophomore, Anderson just put together a sensational season as the ace of the national champion LSU Tigers. The Louisiana native tossed a 3.18 ERA in 119 innings while leading the country with 180 punchouts. His final start in purple and gold was a doozy, a 130-pitch, complete-game shutout in Game 1 of the College World Series finals.
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Anderson’s fastball sits in the 93-95 mph range, but he can reach back for 97, which he did more than a few times in Omaha. His slider is a new offering, and it was supremely effective against righties and lefties. The changeup is phenomenal; expect him to throw it more in pro ball and make it his main weapon against righties. The curveball is sexy, a low-80s looper with bite, but it might be too long to be anything more than a change-of-pace against big-league hitters. Overall, Anderson is extremely advanced and could easily be in the bigs by next season.
Why the Nats will take him: Insiders who love Anderson compare him to Max Fried. They see a polished, athletic left-hander with feel for spin who might eventually have four plus pitches in his arsenal. Anderson is still a pretty lanky dude, so more strength might lead to more fastball velocity. His dominant showing in Omaha feels like the type of thing Rizzo, an old-school scout type, would love.
Why they won’t: Not everyone in the industry thinks Kade is a slam-dunk frontline arm. The skeptics see a limited ceiling, based on Anderson’s lack of a carrying pitch or skill, and have him evaluated as a mid- to back-end rotation starter at the big-league level. There’s some validity to that. Compared to the other pitchers on this list, Liam Doyle and Seth Hernandez, Anderson seems less likely to develop into a top-10 pitcher on Earth.
Ethan Holliday, INF, Stillwater High School (OK)
His background: The son of Matt and the younger brother of Jackson, Ethan is probably one of the most heavily scouted high school prospects ever. He was an impossible-to-miss freshman during Jackson’s senior year, after which his brother went first overall. Listed at 6-foot-4, 185 pounds, Ethan projects to be more like his dad than his brother. The left-hander’s carrying tool is his superb raw juice, though most of his power in games against top competition last summer was to the opposite field. He’s currently listed as a shortstop, but a move to third base or even a corner outfield spot is all but guaranteed.
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Why the Nats will take him: Holliday might have the highest offensive ceiling in the draft. He makes great swing decisions. The pop is big and will only get bigger. He has the frame and name of an All-Star. The timing issues that led to an underwhelming showcase performance last summer appear to have been ironed out already. His hands and athleticism should let him be at least average at third base. Even if his value is more power over average, there’s enough power here to make that work. Holliday has the potential and star power of a No. 1 overall pick in a way that no one else in this draft class has.
Why they won’t: Holliday’s cathedral ceiling is marred by a few red flags. Last summer on the showcase circuit, he didn’t barrel a single fastball to the pull side. He also ran a concerningly high 37% in-zone whiff rate on heaters. Because so much of his profile depends on the bat, the floor here could be scary to more risk-averse teams. That said, the Nats, who took iffy-hit-tooled high school bats in 2021 and 2022, are not one of those teams.
Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb Broxton High School (OK)
His background: Eli’s dad, Reggie, was a six-year big-league outfielder for the Angels and has since become the associate head baseball coach at the University of Oklahoma. It’s not quite Holliday-level bloodlines, but it’s probably better than whatever your family has. Willits is a versatile, projectable shortstop prospect with an impressive feel to hit. He was originally part of the 2026 class before he reclassified to this year, which is why he’ll still be 17 years old on draft day. That’s something model-over-scout teams will care about.
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Why the Nats will take him: He’s the best prospect. At least, we think he is here at Yahoo. Willits lacks Holliday’s power and overall offensive potential, but otherwise, his profile is incredibly enticing. Evaluators believe he’s a strong bet to stick at shortstop, with a good chance to be above average there. He’s also a switch-hitter with a track record of performance against high-level competition. That includes fall ball games at the University of Oklahoma, where Willits filled in and held his own against college arms years older than him. He reminds me of a slightly taller version of Francisco Lindor before Lindor bucked expectations by growing into plus power.
Why they won’t: Willits probably won’t be Francisco Lindor. He doesn’t do anything at an elite level; he’s more of a sum-of-the-parts type of player. There’s value there, not to mention a relatively high floor for a high schooler, but it’s tough to see a world in which Willits becomes a top-10 player in MLB. That’s something teams like to be able to dream on when picking first overall.
The Nats will be on the clock with the No. 1 pick at 6 p.m. July 13. Which player will they choose? (Jonathan Castro/Yahoo Sports)
(Jonathan Castro/Yahoo Sports)
The dark horses
Liam Doyle, LHP, University of Tennessee
His background: Doyle took full advantage of college baseball’s relatively new transfer portal, playing one season at three different schools (Coastal Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee). And during his junior year in Knoxville, the hard-throwing lefty was a revelation. Doyle delivered a 3.20 ERA in 95 2/3 innings for the Vols while striking out 15.4 batters per nine. On the mound, Doyle moves like an attack dog, teetering the line between emotional and demonstrative.
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Why the Nats will take him: The four-seam fastball is downright special. Doyle threw it a preposterous 63% of the time in 2025, getting a 40% swing-and-miss rate. For context, Brewers ace Freddy Peralta currently leads MLB starters in four-seam rate at 57.8%, and Mariners ace Brian Woo tops the league in four-seam whiff rate at 33.1%. Doyle’s is a unicorn offering, one that gives him a Cy Young ceiling.
Why they won’t: Because he threw the fastball so much, the rest of Doyle’s mix is kind of a mystery. He doesn’t really have a secondary weapon against righties at the moment, meaning the team that drafts him will need to help him develop one. Overall, Doyle is relatively unpolished for someone coming off such a fantastic season in the SEC.
Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona High School (CA)
His background: A right-handed high school pitcher has never been taken No. 1 overall. Hernandez has a shot to change that.
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Why the Nats will take him: The 6-foot-4, 195-pound Californian is as impressive as a high school pitcher can be. He has a prototypical ace’s build and real-deal athleticism. His heater sits comfortably in the high-90s and is complemented by a changeup that most evaluators grade out as plus or better. Hernandez has two different breaking balls, both of which have gotten better over the past calendar year. He performed against the best possible competition while playing for the best high school team in the country. It’s everything you could possibly want from this type of player.
Why they won’t: There’s a reason teams don’t often use top picks on right-handed high school hurlers. It’s a supremely risky demographic as far as translating to big-league success. Of the 100 players selected in the top 10 over the past 10 years, only seven were high school righties. And since 2019, just two high school righties — Jackson Jobe of the Tigers and Noble Meyer of the Marlins — have been taken in the top 10. The only no-doubt success story from this group so far has been Hunter Greene, who went second overall in 2018. It’s not Hernandez’s fault, but the burden of history is heavy.
The long shot
Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State University
His background: Built like an NBA wing at a gangly 6-foot-5, Arquette was one of the best hitters in college baseball this season. Because of his size, some evaluators believe he’ll end up at the hot corner as a pro. For the record, I disagree. I think Arquette is a freak whose unique athleticism will let him stick at shortstop. Either way, he’s the top college bat on the majority of boards.
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Why the Nats will take him: No other college position player in this draft has Arquette’s ceiling. He’s a physical marvel; the only legitimate body comparison is Cal Ripken Jr. And some teams are put off by the high school ranks, preferring to select players who are closer to being finished products.
Why they won’t: Arquette has some big chase issues, particularly on breaking balls. Players with long levers like this tend to take more time to adjust to pro pitching, even coming from college. Plus, Arquette’s defensive future is far from a given. In all, there are probably too many questions here for the Nats to take him first.
