If you take a look at some of the NBA futures markets, oddsmakers have priced several races as if they are already decided. Some favorites are running away with certain awards by a mile, while others have an unusually comfortable margin considering it’s only January.
One wide-open race, both at the sportsbooks and on the court, is Sixth Man of the Year.
The leader in the clubhouse, Timberwolves big man Naz Reid, narrowly won the award in 2024 and has +350 odds to become the sixth multi-time winner.
Rounding out the top five choices are Heat guard Jaime Jaquez Jr. (+400), Magic guard Anthony Black (+750), Spurs forward Keldon Johnson (+900), and Reed Sheppard (10/1) of the Houston Rockets.
But the player catching my eye is a bit further down the list.
Ajay Mitchell (22/1) has burst onto the scene this season for the Thunder as a do-it-all force off the bench. The second-year guard is averaging 13.9 points, 3.5 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 1.5 steals, doubling his numbers from his rookie season in nearly every category.
The box score numbers don’t do Mitchell’s season justice. He is the definition of an impact player. When he’s on the floor, the Thunder outscore their opponents by 16.2 points per 100 possessions. For context, the Thunder outscore their opponent by 16.1 points per 100 with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in action, so Mitchell is in good company.
A big factor in his success has been his defense. The Thunder allow just 100.8 points per 100 possessions with Mitchell on the floor, which is the third-best mark on the team behind Jaylin Williams and Cason Wallace.
Mitchell isn’t just locking up second-unit players and getting spare minutes. He’s playing 25.7 minutes per game and has been on the floor for 12 of the Thunder’s 14 games that went into clutch time (last five minutes with the game within five points).
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I think other players ahead of Mitchell on the odds board will eventually drop off, which is why now is a good time to grab the value on him at this number.
Black, for example, has been a starter for the Magic since early December and has 16 starts in 36 games. With Orlando’s multitude of injuries, he could end up being ineligible if he starts too many games. Suns guard Collin Gillespie is in a similar situation with 17 starts in 36 games.
At the top of the board, Reid and Jaquez are certainly formidable candidates, but come with their own drawbacks. Reid is slightly better now than he was two seasons ago when he won Sixth Man of the Year, but he doesn’t have the same out-of-nowhere energy he did when he took home the trophy.
Jaquez is leading all bench scorers with 16.2 points per game and looks like the biggest threat to Mitchell for this award, but the Heat need to be better as a team for him to get more attention. Mitchell’s all-around game and the Thunder’s dominance over the rest of the league will make his case stronger.
I’ll grab his 22/1 odds before this line moves.
The bet: Ajay Mitchell Sixth Man of the Year (22/1, bet365)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
