A prime-time battle for first place in the NFC North. Followed by another clash between rivals tied atop the NFC South.
Plus a showdown between two red-hot AFC division leaders, and a Sunday Night Football contest in which a .500 AFC North squad is favored over the 11-win leader of the AFC East.
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Needless to say, NFL schedule-makers hit the jackpot in Week 16. Now let’s see if we can help you hit the jackpot by breaking down a slew of current and historical NFL betting trends related to all four of these highly intriguing matchups.
All listed odds are via BetMGM and subject to change.
Green Bay Packers (-1, 46.5) at Chicago Bears
Kickoff: Saturday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Packers -115/Bears +105
• The NFC North’s top two teams hook up for the second time in three weeks, this time in the Windy City.
Back in Week 14, the Packers welcomed Chicago to Lambeau Field and held on 28-21, barely cashing as 6.5-point home favorites.
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From there, Green Bay took its season-best four-game SU and three-game ATS winning streaks to Denver and saw both go up in flames in a 34-26 loss as 1.5-point road chalk.
Conversely, the Bears rebounded from the disappointing defeat in Wisconsin by blasting Cleveland 31-3 in Week 15, easily covering as 7.5-point favorites.
• When it comes to impressive NFL betting trends, it’s difficult to top Green Bay’s utter dominance of the Bears that dates back nearly two decades.
The Packers have won 29 of 35 head-to-head meetings since 2008 (going 26-9 ATS), including 12 of 13 since 2019 (11-2 ATS).
What’s more, Green Bay has made Soldier Field a second home for the past 17 years, going 15-2 SU and 13-4 ATS. That includes an ongoing six-game winning streak in Chicago (5-1 ATS).
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• The Packers are 4-2-1 SU on the road but just 2-5 ATS.
On the other hand, Chicago is 10-2 since Week 3 (8-3-1 ATS), including an active five-game home winning streak (3-1-1 ATS).
• Green Bay has cleared the closing total in three straight games overall and four of the last five. The over is also 6-0 in the Packers’ last six as a visitor.
The total has alternated in the Bears’ last four contests, with Sunday’s game against the Browns staying low. In fact, the under has hit in four of the last five at Soldier Field.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 45.5) at Carolina Panthers
Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
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Moneyline: Buccaneers -155/Panthers +130
• In another Week 16 division rivalry matchup involving playoff contenders, the slumping Buccaneers visit Carolina. Although both NFC South squads are just 7-7, they are tied atop the division.
Tampa Bay is mired in a 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS slump, the latest setback being a 29-28 loss to the Falcons as a 6-point home favorite in the Week 15 Thursday Night Football game.
Three days later, the Panthers dropped a 20-17 decision to the lowly Saints as 2.5-point road chalk. Carolina has now alternated SU and ATS wins and losses in its last eight games.
• Although it endured 0-6-1 ATS slides in 2022, 2017 and 2006, the Buccaneers have never experienced an 0-7 ATS drought in franchise history.
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Also, since starting the season 3-0 SU and ATS on the road, Tampa has dropped three of four as a visitor both on the field and at the betting window.
Then again, Carolina has lost two of three at home both SU and ATS. However, the one victory was a biggie: a 31-28 Week 14 upset of the Rams as a 10-point underdog.
• For the season, the Panthers are 7-5 SU and 8-4 ATS as an underdog, including 4-1 SU and ATS as a home underdog.
Taking this NFL betting trend a step further, the underdog is 9-5 SU and 10-4 ATS in Carolina games in 2025.
• The Bucs swept the season series from the Panthers in 2024, winning 26-23 in overtime at home and 48-14 on the road.
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Tampa Bay has won five in a row in this rivalry. That’s part of an ongoing 11-2 SU run, in which the Bucs have also gone 9-1 as a favorite and 5-1 in Charlotte.
Over this 13-game span, the Bucs are 9-4 ATS overall against the Panthers and 7-3 ATS as a favorite, but just 4-3 ATS in Carolina.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos (-3, 46.5)
Kickoff: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Jaguars +135/Broncos -160
• Jacksonville (-13.5) closed as the biggest favorite in Week 15 and had no trouble covering in a 48-20 wipeout of the Jets.
The Jaguars, who sit alone in the AFC South penthouse, have won and covered five in a row for the first time since Weeks 4-8 of 2023.
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Two NFL betting trends to keep an eye on in this one: Jacksonville hasn’t had a six-game SU winning streak since an 11-game run in 1999 and hasn’t cashed in six straight games since 2010.
• Denver overcame a 23-14 second-half deficit in Week 15 and upset the Packers 34-26 as a 1.5-point home underdog.
The Broncos are riding an NFL-best 11-game winning streak. It’s the longest such run since the 1998 squad started 14-0.
Despite the recent on-field success, Denver is just 6-8 ATS for the season (6-5 ATS during its winning streak).
• Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence threw a career-high five touchdown passes in last week’s drubbing of the Jets.
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Lawrence now has multiple scoring passes in four straight games for the first time in his career (12 TDs in all). He also hasn’t thrown an interception in three straight contests.
This week, Lawrence faces a Broncos defense that has yielded just 14 passing TDs (tied for third-fewest in the NFL) but corralled only nine interceptions.
Lawrence’s odds to throw two-plus TDs on Sunday: from +118 to +135, depending on the sportsbook. His odds to throw a pick: from -120 to -160.
• Jacksonville has scored at least 25 points in 11 of 14 games, including the last seven in a row. During this seven-game stretch, the Jags are averaging 32.9 points.
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So it’s no surprise that the over is 7-4 in Jacksonville’s last 11 games. Also, five of the team’s six true road contests have hurdled the total.
Meanwhile, eight of the Broncos’ first 11 games fell short of the total, but the over has cashed in their last three.
New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 48)
Kickoff: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Patriots +125/Ravens -150
• The Patriots’ 10-game winning streak came to an end in stunning fashion in Week 15, as they blew a 21-0 lead at home to Buffalo and lost 35-31 as 2.5-point underdogs.
The good news for New England heading into this Sunday Night Football contest in Buffalo: It hasn’t lost or failed to cover in consecutive games all season.
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Not only that, but the Patriots possess the NFL’s only unbeaten road record at 6-0. They covered the spread in five of those contests, part of an overall 9-5 ATS mark that’s tied with Jacksonville and San Francisco for third-best in the league.
• Baltimore went to Cincinnati as a 3-point favorite in Week 15 and emerged with a 24-0 win, its first shutout since Week 6 of the 2018 season.
With the blowout victory, the Ravens halted a four-game ATS slide. Still, they bring several negative NFL betting trends into this contest: 5-9 overall, 2-6 at home and 2-4 as a home chalk.
• After throwing for at least 259 yards in six straight games, New England quarterback Drake Maye was held to a season-low 155 yards against the Bills.
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Then again, Buffalo has the No. 2-ranked pass defense in the NFL. Baltimore ranks 26th.
Maye has faced three secondaries positioned right below the Ravens: Pittsburgh (27th), Cincinnati (28th) and Tampa Bay (29th). His respective passing totals in those three contests: 268, 294 and 270.
Maye is projected for 236.5 passing yards Sunday night.
• Since the franchise was founded in 1996, the Ravens are 3-9 SU and 3-8-1 ATS against New England in the regular season.
However, Baltimore has won two of three meetings with quarterback Lamar Jackson leading the offense.
• The over is 6-2 in New England’s last eight contests. Also, all five Patriots-Ravens battles in Baltimore have soared past the closing number, with combined point totals of 84, 51, 61, 48 and 57.
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That being said, only four Patriots’ games this season have cleared 48 total points.
Similarly, Baltimore and its opponents have eclipsed 48 total points just once in the last nine contests — and that was the Ravens’ 27-22 loss to Pittsburgh in Week 14.
