The Atlanta Falcons’ upset of the Los Angeles Rams on Monday night continued to muddy the waters in the NFC South. The champion of that division and the AFC North are the only remaining playoff spots open in the NFL heading into the regular-season finale.
Here’s how things look after Week 17:
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(* Clinched playoff spot)
1. Seattle Seahawks (13-3)*: Remaining schedule — at San Francisco 49ers (Week 18)
Notable: Seattle is up to 54% to earn the No. 1 seed after beating the Panthers on Sunday, according to The Athletic’s playoff predictor. If they beat the Niners on Saturday night, they’ll win the No. 1 seed and the NFC West.
2. Chicago Bears (11-5)*: Remaining schedule — vs. Detroit Lions (Week 18)
Notable: The Bears can’t win the No. 1 seed and are locked into either the No. 2 or No. 3 slot in the NFC playoffs. If they defeat the Lions in the regular-season finale, they’ll face the Packers in the wild-card round.
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3. Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)*: Remaining schedule — vs. Washington Commanders (Week 18)
Notable: The Eagles, back-to-back champs of the NFC East, can’t get the No. 1 seed and can’t fall below the third seed. There’s not much to play for in Week 18.
4. Carolina Panthers (8-8): Remaining schedule — at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Week 18)
Notable: Saturday’s Panthers-Bucs could be for the NFC South title, though there’s a scenario where Carolina could win the division despite a loss in Week 18. A Panthers win gives them the division. A Panthers loss and a Falcons win against the Saints would also give them the division crown thanks to a three-way division tie-breaker that would be triggered by Carolina’s 3-1 mark against the Falcons and Bucs.
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5. San Francisco 49ers (12-4)*: Remaining schedule — vs. Seattle Seahawks (Week 18)
Notable: They can be the No. 1 seed in the NFC and NFC West champions if they beat the Seahawks on Saturday night.
6. Los Angeles Rams (11-5)*: Remaining schedule — vs. Arizona Cardinals (Week 18)
Notable: The Rams are locked into a wild-card spot. In order to get the No. 5 seed, and a playoff date vs. the NFC South champion, they need to win their regular-season finale vs. the Cardinals AND have the Seahawks defeat the 49ers on Saturday night.
7. Green Bay Packers* (9-6-1): Remaining schedule — at Minnesota Vikings (Week 18)
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Notable: The Packers clinched a playoff spot with the Lions’ loss to the Vikings on Christmas, but they can’t win the NFC North. They’re locked in here at No. 7.
Still in the NFC picture
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9): Remaining schedule — vs. Carolina Panthers (Week 18)
Notable odds: Despite a fourth straight loss, the Bucs can still win the NFC South with a win over the Panthers on Saturday AND a Falcons loss against the Saints in the regular-season finale. The Bucs need the regular season to end in a two-way tie with the Panthers to claim the NFC South. A three-way divisional tie with the Falcons at 8-9 would give the Panthers the crown.
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AFC
1. Denver Broncos (13-3)*: Remaining schedule — vs. Los Angeles Chargers (Week 18)
AFC No. 1 seed-clinching scenario:
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Beat the Chargers OR
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Patriots lose to Dolphins + Jaguars lose to Titans
Notable: The Broncos ended the Chiefs’ nine-year reign atop the AFC West by virtue of the Chargers’ loss Saturday, and now have around a 61% chance to earn the No. 1 seed per ESPN.
2. New England Patriots (13-3)*: Remaining schedule — vs. Miami Dolphins (Week 18)
AFC No. 1 seed-clinching scenario:
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Beat the Dolphins + Broncos lose to Chargers
Notable: The Patriots secured the AFC East crown with the Bills loss on Sunday. They still have a 33% shot at the AFC No. 1 seed, according to The Athletic.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4)*: Remaining schedule — vs. Tennessee Titans (Week 18)
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AFC No. 1 seed-clinching scenario:
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Beat the Titans + Broncos lose to Chargers + Patriots lose to Dolphins
AFC South-clinching scenarios:
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Jaguars beat the Titans OR
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Texans lose to the Colts
Notable: The Jaguars have a 86% chance to win the AFC South per The Athletic, and can make it easy on themselves by beating the Titans in Week 18.
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7): Remaining schedule — vs. Baltimore Ravens (Week 18)
Notable: The Steelers missed their opportunity to clinch the AFC North by losing to the Browns. They can still claim the division crown next Sunday night by beating the Ravens. A loss sends them home for the season.
5. Buffalo Bills (11-5)*: Remaining schedule — vs. New York Jets (Week 18)
Notable: The Bills lost out on the AFC East with a loss to the Eagles, but they’re still in the playoff field.
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6. Houston Texans (11-5): Remaining schedule — vs. Indianapolis Colts (Week 18)
AFC South-clinching scenarios:
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Beat the Colts + Jaguars lose to Titans
Notable: The Texans’ chances of winning the AFC South are at 14%, per The Athletic. But they’ll need help from the Jaguars in the season finale.
7. Los Angeles Chargers (11-5)*: Remaining schedule — at Denver Broncos (Week 18)
Notable: The Chargers are in the postseason, but also locked into a wild-card spot thanks to their loss Saturday.
Still in the AFC picture
Baltimore Ravens (8-8): Remaining schedule — at Pittsburgh Steelers (Week 18)
Notable: The Ravens had a good weekend, keeping their playoff hopes alive by beating the Packers and seeing the Steelers lose. Baltimore can now steal the division title with a win at Pittsburgh during the Sunday Night Football regular-season finale.
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Already eliminated
AFC
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Indianapolis Colts (8-8)
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Miami Dolphins (7-9)
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Kansas City Chiefs (6-10)
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Cincinnati Bengals (6-10)
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Cleveland Browns (4-12)
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New York Jets (3-13)
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Tennessee Titans (3-13)
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Las Vegas Raiders (2-14)
NFC
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Detroit Lions (8-8)
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Minnesota Vikings (8-8)
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Dallas Cowboys (7-8-1)
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Atlanta Falcons (7-9)
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New Orleans Saints (6-10)
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Washington Commanders (4-12)
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Arizona Cardinals (3-13)
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New York Giants (3-13)