The Giants finally pulled the plug on the Daniel Jones era during their bye week. Talk about a decision that was met with almost universal approval by the fans, media and the football world at large.
The second piece of news — the elevation of third-stringer Tommy DeVito to the starting position over backup Drew Lock — has generated more debate.
Lock is here on a $5 million contract, and as the No. 2 quarterback he has been running the scout team all season in the Giants’ practice setup. DeVito is making a base salary of $915,000. Throughout the season as the No. 3 man, he’s gotten no reps with the first team and very few reps, period.
Does that mean it was a bad decision? Not necessarily. When you compare the stats, Lock is 9-14 in his 23 career starts with 28 touchdown passes and 23 interceptions. His career passer rating is 79.1. Just two of his starts have come after 2021.
DeVito started six games for the Giants last season, going 3-3 with eight touchdown passes, three interceptions and a passer rating of 89.2. “Tommy Cutlets” also seemed to energize the team and fan base at the end of a lifeless season, so it’s understandable Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen believe he might be able to do it again.
The real question for our purposes is: Does this QB change make you want to take the Giants plus six points against the visiting Buccaneers on Sunday at MetLife Stadium? The Giants amassed a 2-8 record with Jones compiling an 79.4 passer rating, which isn’t much worse than what DeVito has on his résumé. So we’ll get to learn if this disastrous season is all on Jones, or rather on everyone.
Yes, DeVito had some success last season, but because he’s gotten so few reps, he hasn’t really played with Malik Nabers, Theo Johnson, Devin Singletary or Tyrone Tracy Jr. Trying to learn on the fly with Vita Vea standing right in front of you is not usually recommended.
The Bucs are 4-6 despite the best efforts of Baker Mayfield. The former No. 1-overall pick, who’s been well traveled, has 24 touchdown passes vs. nine interceptions and is playing to a career-high 103.6 passer rating. This despite having lost his top two receivers — Mike Evans and Chris Godwin — against Baltimore in Week 7.
That Ravens game concluded a four-game stretch in which the Bucs averaged 36.5 ppg. Since then, Tampa Bay is 0-3 (losing to the Falcons, Chiefs and 49ers) but still has scored an average of 23.3 ppg with Cade Otton and Sterling Shepard picking up the slack. Evans is expected back Sunday.
Meanwhile, the Giants are 0-5 at home this season and have been outscored by an average of 13.4 points.
I wouldn’t criticize anyone who wants to take the six points in hopes DeVito will brighten the Giants’ world for a week or seven. But I think the better play is to lay the number with the Bucs, who are just 1.5 games behind the faltering Falcons in the NFC South and should be getting back a huge weapon.
The pick: Buccaneers -6.
CHICAGO BEARS (+3.5) over Minnesota Vikings
Though the Vikings are the better team, I’m hesitant to lay the points for a few reasons. One is a foot injury to Sam Darnold, which limited him at practice midweek. The other is the Vikings have averaged 18.6 ppg in their three-game winning streak, and the Bears have allowed 20-plus just once in their four-game skid. Those numbers suggest this could be close.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (+7.5) over Detroit Lions
Though the Lions are capable of putting up 40 points against anyone, anywhere, I’m still of the mindset that I want to grab more than a touchdown’s spread with any home team that’s not atrocious or has quit the season. The Colts at 5-6 are in the playoff hunt and have many ways to challenge the Lions on both sides of the ball to keep this competitive.
New England Patriots (+7.5) over MIAMI DOLPHINS
Miami won a Week 5 meeting in Foxborough, Mass., 15-10. That one was Tyler Huntley vs. Jacoby Brissett. This time it’s Tua Tagovailoa vs. Drake Maye, big improvements for both teams. Seems like a heavy spread considering the Dolphins average point differential is minus-4.6 ppg to the Patriots minus-6.
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (-10.5) over Dallas Cowboys
Cooper Rush did better Monday night, throwing for 354 yards, but the Cowboys have lost his two games by a combined 68-16 as part of a five-game skid. If they get behind early, you can expect the Cowboys to check out again, and that would leave us a joyride for Jayden Daniels and a Commanders team that will be looking to pay back Dallas for two massive blowouts last season.
CAROLINA PANTHERS (+11) over Kansas City Chiefs
This figures to be a tough spot for the Chiefs to get up emotionally after having their winning streak broken in the playoff atmosphere of Orchard Park. Of K.C.’s nine wins, just two were by double digits and just one would have covered this number. Profit from another potential sleepwalk.
HOUSTON TEXANS (-8) over Tennessee Titans
Houston’s offense looked recharged with Nico Collins returning, and Joe Mixon had a great night against the Cowboys. Though the Titans are occasionally competitive, their road games against top teams have gone poorly — including losses of 34-10 at Buffalo and 52-14 at Detroit.
Denver Broncos (-6) over LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
The Broncos followed their heartbreaking blocked-field-goal loss to the Chiefs with a savage 38-6 beating of the Falcons. I’ve figured Bo Nix would improve as the season went along under Sean Payton’s tutelage, and that seems to be what’s happening. Denver won the first meeting, 34-18, a score made closer by a late Raiders touchdown.
San Francisco 49ers (+2) over GREEN BAY PACKERS
George Kittle says he’s coming back while Brock Purdy is dealing with a shoulder injury for a 49ers team that hasn’t been “all there” in the season after their Super Bowl loss. If Kittle does play, it would be a huge help for Christian McCaffrey. Even the small spread might matter as the Packers’ past three wins have come by two points, three points and one point.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (+1) over Arizona Cardinals
For a team with such a great home-field advantage, it’s stunning the Seahawks have lost their past four games in front of the “12th Man.” Sunday, the first-place Cardinals visit, one game head of the Seahawks, Rams and 49ers. I figure Seattle will be on point with DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Kenneth Walker III all healthy options for Geno Smith.
LOS ANGELES RAMS (+3) over Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles enter SoFi Stadium with a six-game winning streak and Jalen Hurts on the injury list with an ankle issue. The Rams are the healthiest they’ve been all season, and Matthew Stafford can give the Philly defense problems spreading it around to Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams.
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Monday
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (+3) over Baltimore Ravens
The Harbaugh Bowl presents a tough back-to-back road spot for the Ravens after their loss in Pittsburgh. Have to think Baltimore’s No. 32 ranking in passing yards allowed will continue to haunt it. If you haven’t yet heard of Will Dissly, Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston by now, you probably will by the end of Monday night.
Best bets: Patriots, Commanders, Texans
Lock of the week: Patriots (Locks 6-5 in 2024)
Last week: 8-6 overall, 2-1 Best Bets
Thursday: Browns (W)
