NFL Week 16 Props that Pop: Banking on Gibbs and a boost for Falcons

It’s Week 16? Yes, it’s Week 16! The fantasy football postseason is in its second week for most virtual enthusiasts, and the real life NFL playoffs are just around the corner.

This week, Daniel Dopp and I aim to improve on our numbers while lining your pockets with some extra holiday spending money.

Let’s dig in! — Liz Loza

All odds as of publication time. For the latest odds, visit ESPN BET.

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Quarterback props

Drake Maye OVER 199.5 passing yards (-115), OVER 0.5 INTs (-165)

Loza: Maye has been a garbage time hero, padding his stats while chasing points. That’s a trend that figures to continue with the New England Patriots as 14-point road underdogs at Orchard Park, New York. Maye is averaging 189.7 passing yards on the season, but he has gone over 200 passing yards in four consecutive contests. In his fervor, he has also tossed seven picks over his past six outings. The Buffalo Bills secondary is littered with injuries, which should help Maye connect with his receiving corps. Buffalo also ranks seventh in total INTs with an impressive 13 on the season. With only a 5% chance of rain currently expected for Sunday’s matchup, the weather shouldn’t deter Maye from putting the ball in the air enough times to win both wagers.

Caleb Williams longest rush OVER 12.5 yards (-120)

Dopp: The Lions’ defensive woes came to a head when they played Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills last week, losing despite scoring 42 points! One of the ways that Allen and the Bills were able to beat this defense was by relying on Allen’s legs to pick up yards on the ground when plays broke down. It’s something that every Lions fan has witnessed all season (at least since Aiden Hutchinson was lost for the season).

Given Aaron Glenn’s heavy man coverage scheme, QBs have been able to pick up big chunks of yardage all season, though it’s been even worse in the second half with all of the defensive injuries Detroit has suffered. The Lions have allowed QBs to a rush of 13 yards or more on 11 different occasions this year. Sam Darnold topped this line in Week 7, as did Mason Rudolph in Week 8. In Weeks 9 to 11, the Lions held Mac Jones, C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love — with Love being the only one with mobility — to fall short over that span. In Week 12, Anthony Richardson topped this line. In Week 13, Williams exceeded this line. In Week 14, Love got his revenge and bested this line. In Week 15, Allen overcame this line.

See a trend? The Lions have given up at least 13 yards on a single rush attempt to QBs in each of the past four weeks. This defense is still severely banged up, especially at the LB position, and I’m expecting Williams to clear this number once again.

Running back props

Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 125.5 rushing + receiving yards (-118)

Dopp: Gibbs is in line for some extra work in the Lions backfield with David Montgomery done for the regular season. The injury is heartbreaking for Lions fans, but it does clear that backfield for those looking to put in a prop bet on Gibbs.

Earlier this week, Michael Lester Clay Jr. tweeted about Gibbs’ performances when Montgomery has missed time this year. For the sake of brevity, Gibbs had 20 touches in Week 7 for 126 yards (and a TD) and 31 touches in Week 8 for a career-high 189 yards (and a TD). Not only did he smash in those two weeks, but he also showcased his ability to carve up this Bears’ defense in Week 13 when he had 11 touches for 104 yards.

This Bears’ defense has slowed quite a bit in recent weeks, allowing Josh Jacobs to hit 134 yards in Week 11, Aaron Jones to reach 129 yards in Week 12, Montgomery to post 124 in Week 13 and Isaac Guerendo to produce 128 in Week 14. Knowing that Gibbs is a big play waiting to happen in the rushing and passing game and the recent struggles the Bears have had against opposing RBs, I’m taking Gibbs to hit the over.

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Wide receiver props

Darnell Mooney 50+ receiving yards (-125), longest reception OVER 22.5 yards (-110)

Loza: The Michael Penix Jr. era begins Sunday versus the New York Giants. Penix dazzled at the University of Washington, demonstrating incredible arm talent and leading the FBS in passing last season. Penix completed and attempted the most throws 20 yards downfield of any FBS player in 2023. While some bettors might have concerns about the rookie’s efficiency in his first start, I’m confident he’ll lift the Atlanta Falcons and further unlock the team’s downfield weapons. That sets up nicely for Mooney, who ranks 16th in aDOT (12.74) among wide receivers and 18th in reception percentage over 20 yards (33%). Penix and Mooney figure to flash against a Giants secondary that has allowed the highest completion percentage on deep passes (65%) this season.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba OVER 59.5 receiving yards, 4+ receptions (SGP +163)

Dopp: JSN has been cruising lately, seemingly taking over as the WR1 in this Seattle Seahawks passing attack. He leads the team in targets, receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. It’s been a breakout season for the second-year WR and there’s a chance it could get even better this week against the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings have allowed the most targets, receptions and receiving yards to wide receivers this year, as well as the fourth-most completions and third-most yards to the slot, which is where JSN has lived.

The Seahawks should continue to rely on their breakout star as they NEED to win this game to stay in the NFC playoff hunt. JSN has at least four receptions and 59.5 receiving yards in seven straight games! The fact that you’re able to get plus money on a line that he has hit seven weeks in a row against a team that gives up yards and receptions like it’s going out of style seems wild to me, but it’s not my day to make the lines over at ESPN BET. This is my favorite bet of the weekend, and I’m encouraging everyone to jump on this before we see a shift in the odds. Give me JSN to hit this same-game parlay.

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Tight end prop

Pat Freiermuth OVER 3.5 receptions (Even)

Loza: The Pittsburgh Steelers have surprisingly stymied Lamar Jackson over much of his career, as the Baltimore Ravens signal-caller has managed just a 2-5 record against the AFC North rival. Still, the Ravens are 6.5-point home favorites for the Week 16 matchup. With Russell Wilson likely to be chasing points and George Pickens sidelined for a third straight contest, Freiermuth figures to draw hefty volume. The veteran tight end has posted three catches in back-to-back games, but that number should increase given the matchup. Baltimore has allowed the seventh-most catches to opposing TEs (5.2 per game). Look for Muth to haul in at least four grabs Saturday.

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