Unless playoff implications are at stake, Week 18’s “last-day-of-school” nature prompts some more-or-less unexciting football.
On the contrary, it’s the last shot for NFL players with bonus incentives in their contracts to meet their milestones.
Oddsmakers will adapt accordingly in the player prop markets with these narratives influencing just how expensive some prices are.
We’ve detailed some of the key bonus scenarios across the league, each of which at least plausible in the regular season finale. Depending on matchup context and the threshold, the narratives make workload markets optimal targets rather than sheer output.
Aside from money-related incentives, Christian McCaffrey is 110 receiving yards away from becoming the only player in NFL history to hit 1,000 yards in both rushing and receiving in multiple seasons.
Myles Garrett is one sack shy of setting the NFL’s single-season record.
If Justin Jefferson collects 53 yards, he will have hit 1,000 for six straight seasons.
Be sure to check this page before Sunday’s games kickoff as more line populate at sportsbooks.
Week 18 player incentive tracker
| Player | Incentive | Needs | Bonus value | Prop to bet on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 4,000 passing yards | 150 passing yards | $500,000 | Over 30.4 pass attempts (+104, FanDuel) |
| Aaron Rodgers | Playoff berth | Defeat Baltimore | $500,000 | Over 20.5 completions (-114, FanDuel) |
| Caleb Williams | 4,000 passing yards | 270 passing yards | Future max-deal leverage | Over 236.5 passing yards (-114, FanDuel) |
| Saquon Barkley | 1,500 all-purpose yards | 87 scrimmage yards | $500,000 | No line yet |
| Rico Dowdle | 1,350 scrimmage yards | 7 yards | $1 million | Over 13.5 first quarter rushing yards (-114, FanDuel) |
| Tony Pollard | 1,100 scrimmage yards | 66 rush yards | $250,000 | No line yet |
| Deebo Samuel | 800 receiving yards | 93 receiving yards | $200,000 | 93+ Rec Yards (+650, bet365) |
| Keenan Allen | 80 catches, 750 receiving yards and six touchdowns | 6 catches, 9 yards and two touchdowns | $1.25 million | No line yet |
| Khalil Shakir | Five touchdowns | One touchdown | $150,000 | 1+ Rec. TD (+250, bet365) |
| Jauan Jennings | 60 catches | Nine catches | $666,666 | 5+ catches (+146, FanDuel) |
| Hunter Henry | 60 catches | Five catches | $250,000 | Over 4.5 catches (+110, FanDuel) |
| Dawson Knox | 400 receiving yards | Seven yards | $100,000 | No line yet |
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
