Got bit by the injury bug last week.
We round out the regular season for Week 18 player prop bets with loads of uncertainty related to player props and expected usage rates.
Many teams aren’t playing their starters, while others are leaving this entirely up to a guessing game.
We look to slice through that ahead of Week 18, where we target the AFC South.
Last week, Marvin Harrison Jr. appeared to re-injure himself and was promptly placed on injured reserve, as did Darren Waller.
You may have gotten your bets refunded as Waller played just 38 percent of snaps, while Harrison got in just 33 percent of plays.
That’s the business we’re in. You lost two units on the week if you’re betting with a correct bankroll management system.
On the year, we’re positive 1.37 units.
NFL Week 18 player props and picks
Tony Pollard Over 65.5 rushing yards (-125, Fanatics Sportsbook) | 100+ (+385, DraftKings)
Tony Pollard has been absolutely rolling for the Tennessee Titans of late.
Having rushed for 100 yards in three of his last four games, Pollard has a solid opportunity to maintain the stranglehold he has taken on the Titans’ backfield.
Pollard has gone Over 65.5 rushing yards in each of his past four games, so this is definitely one of my favorite bets of the week.
Jacksonville comes in as 13.5-point favorites, so the oddsmakers aren’t expecting this to be close. For what it’s worth, I project the spread much closer than that.
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If the Titans keep this one close, they have shown they won’t overexpose rookie quarterback Cam Ward by forcing him to throw 50 times.
The Jaguars have also allowed 4.2 yards per carry in their last three games, ranking in the bottom half of the league.
Also, look at some sportsbooks like TheScore Bet and DraftKings to live-bet Pollard’s rushing attempts prop if they fall behind.
Jayden Higgins Over 34.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel) | over 74.5 (+570, Fanatics Sportsbook)
A rookie I’ve long been bullish on, Jayden Higgins is a player who should bench-proof Sunday.
Houston is still playing for seeding, sitting in a three-way tie for the No 5 seed, and the Texans could get as high as No. 3 if the Jaguars falls to the Titans.
Higgins should be relatively safe as the Texans do still need to win against the Colts, even if the Jaguars are winning by 30 points against the Titans.
Betting on the NFL?
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Higgins is a talented player, having tallied 88 receiving yards last week.
Oddly enough, the Colts are actually the second-worst secondary in the NFL against the pass, allowing 171.5 receiving yards to wide receivers, the second-worst figure in the NFL behind only the Cowboys.
Look for the rookie Higgins to put up a solid outing in a game that does have some stakes in Houston.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
