It feels as if Penn State is following a familiar pattern in 2024.
The Nittany Lions are undefeated through the first month of the season, but ask any Penn State fan and they’d likely tell you that they’ve been far from convincing despite being ranked No. 7 team and sitting as the third-favorite to win the Big 10 behind Ohio State and Oregon.
The Nittany Lions got off the blocks in impressive fashion with a 34-12 win over West Virginia in Morgantown, but they were given quite the scare a week later by Bowling Green in their home opener.
Penn State trailed the Falcons by four points at halftime and needed a late touchdown in the fourth quarter to secure their 34-27 win.
A resounding 56-0 win over Kent State seemed to put James Franklin’s bunch back on course a week later, but the skeptics were back out after it took three quarters for the Nittany Lions to get separation against Illinois at Beaver Stadium last weekend.
In other words, Penn State has traded impressive performances with underwhelming ones through the first four games and now have a hard-to-predict UCLA team coming across the country as a 28.5-point underdog.
UCLA vs. Penn State odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA | +2500 | +28.5 (-112) | o46.5 (-112) |
| Penn State | -9000 | -28.5 (-108) | u46.5 (-108) |
The first thing to note about this game is that UCLA’s quarterback, Ethan Garbers, is questionable to play.
And while you obviously want the starting quarterback healthy if you’re betting on the Bruins, it’s been a bit of a struggle for Garbers through the first month.
He’s got six picks and just three touchdown passes on the season and the last thing you want is your big underdog handing over the rock.
It’s not just the turnovers that have plagued UCLA, either.
The Bruins have just struggled to move the ball at all and now take on a stout defense that has held two opponents to seven points or fewer already this fall.
The optimistic point of view is that if Bowling Green had success moving the ball through the air against this defense, then UCLA can make hay too.
The Bruins are a pass-first offense, so it’s not a hopeless matchup.
Consistently beating this Penn State defense will be a chore, but when you’re being handed 27.5 points, you are not asking for the offense to turn into the 2001 St. Louis Rams.
You just need to find a way into the red zone a couple of times to give yourself a chance to cover.
But the real reason that UCLA jumped out as my favorite Ugly Underdog is that you just can’t trust this Penn State offense to get the separation needed to cover this kind of spread.
The Nittany Lions have one of the highest rush rates in the country and that means the clock will be moving and will shorten the game.
That’s always a good thing when you’re backing a big ’dog.
The other important factor at play here is the schedule spot.
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UCLA has traveled all over the country to start the season, so it’s not a wonderful situation to be playing at noon ET on the other side of the continent, but Penn State has a massive contest at USC next weekend and will want to be as fresh as possible for that tilt.
That could lead to the Nittany Lions rotating players and taking their foot off the gas in the second half.
It may sound like a mountain for UCLA to climb to stick with Penn State, but that’s not what we’re asking here. We’re just hoping they can keep it within four touchdowns.
Recommendation: UCLA +28.5 (-112, DraftKings)
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