The defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs are off to a 4-0 start, but with an average margin of victory of just five points, they’ve shown some cracks in the armor.
On Monday night, they will play host to a Saints team that started red-hot with two impressive wins but has since lost two straight.
The Chiefs enter the matchup as 5.5-point favorites, with the over/under sitting at 43 points. Let’s dive into this “Monday Night Football” matchup and offer a best bet.
When the Saints have the ball
It’s been refreshing to see Klint Kubiak orchestrating the Saints’ offense this year.
After New Orleans had one of the most archaic, debilitating and boring offenses in the league in 2023, Kubiak has injected new life via misdirection, varied personnel and a heavy dose of play-action passing.
Derek Carr has been a highly productive play-action passer throughout his career, but the Saints utilized it at the lowest rate in the league last season. It was baffling, and Kubiak has righted the ship with the third-highest play-action rate in the league this year. Predictably, Carr has rebounded and ranks first in Pro Football Focus passing grades and fourth in EPA+CPOE.
Steve Spagnuolo’s Chiefs defense ranks fourth in blitz rate, which could create issues against a Saints offensive line that PFF ranks 29th in pass-blocking. However, Carr has carved up opponents this year with nine yards per pass attempt, which ranks sixth in the NFL.
Expect a high rate of press man coverage, as well, which could lead to big plays for wide receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed.
When the Chiefs have the ball
I expected a rebound season from Patrick Mahomes after a down year statistically in 2023, but the losses of Rashee Rice, Isiah Pacheco and Marquise Brown put this offense in a bind. They now have a bottom-five skill position group headlined by a declining Travis Kelce and rookie Xavier Worthy, who has yet to prove himself as more than a gadget player and deep threat.
It’s difficult to overstate the significance of the loss of Rice, who had begun to break out as one of the most important receivers in the NFL.
Mahomes ranks just 13th in EPA+CPOE, and it’s difficult to see that improving in the immediate term, especially against a Saints defense that ranks top five against the pass by virtually every advanced metric.
Final verdict
Nick Giffen, a predictive analyst for Action Network, has this game pegged with a massive luck gap. Since 2018 in regular-season games not including the final week, unlucky teams are 122-68-6 (62.9 percent) against the spread.
We’re also backing strong trends for both starting quarterbacks in this game.
Carr is 55-46-1 (55 percent) against the spread (ATS) as an underdog, while Mahomes is 38-43-3 ATS (47 percent) as a favorite of more than three points.
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The Saints are the better team this season in terms of DVOA, ranking third, while the Chiefs rank ninth.
I’ll back the undervalued road team and fade the Chiefs, who haven’t been able to gain margin over anyone this season.
Best bet: Saints +5.5 (-105, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.
