Week 1 of the college football season saw a couple of hype trains get entirely derailed.
Florida State is left to pick up the pieces after a second consecutive loss as a double-digit favorite, while Virginia Tech fell flat against Vanderbilt.
Texas A&M and LSU also were dealt losses, but those came against terrific opposition, while Oregon and Michigan left it late against Idaho and Fresno State, respectively.
The chaos should continue Saturday and we’ve picked one ugly underdog that not only is a threat to cover a big spread, but could also put a scare into a Power Four team that has plenty of hype behind it.
Sam Houston State vs. UCF prediction
Sometimes, a team’s W-L record doesn’t tell the whole story.
That was the case last year for Sam Houston State.
The Bearkats made the leap from FCS to FBS in 2023 and the transition was bumpy, as expected.
Sam Houston State started the season 0-8 but four of those defeats were by one score and two came after regulation.
The Bearkats would go on to finish the season strong, going 3-1 in their last four games and earning wins over Middle Tennessee State and Louisiana Tech.
Quietly, things were pointing in the right direction for Sam Houston State.
There was nothing quiet about their Week 1 showing, however.
The Bearkats made a statement in their opener, upsetting Rice as a double-digit underdog by a final score of 34-14.
Things won’t come as easy this week against UCF, a team that plenty of punters are picking as a sleeper to make it to the Big 12 title game.
The Golden Knights were barely tested in Week 1 against New Hampshire and Gus Malzahn will be perfectly happy with the 57-3 victory.
Quarterback K.J. Jefferson was brought in from Arkansas to run Malzahn’s offense and he garnered plenty of praise in the offseason when the former Auburn coach compared Jefferson to Cam Newton.
But this should be a bit of a test for the former Razorback.
The Bearkats improved their defensive line — which graded out as average last year — in the transfer portal and it showed in Week 1 when they held Rice to less than 50 yards on the ground.
They won’t come close to replicating that against Jefferson and star running back RJ Harvey, but it was an encouraging showing to build off of as they travel to the Bounce House.
The other thing that the Bearkats have going for them is that this will be Jefferson’s second game in a new system.
Jefferson has all the tools to lead this UCF team to big things, but it could take some time.
Sam Houston State’s offense struggled to get going last year, but new quarterback Hunter Watson made a seamless transition from JUCO to FBS in Week 1.
Watson, who led Iowa Western to a national title in 2023, went 16-of-27 for 229 yards and two touchdowns with no turnover-worthy plays.
He was able to rely on an experienced receiving corps and was aided by a terrific running game that put up 178 yards on 46 carries. That reliance on the rushing attack will be huge in this situation, as you want to keep the clock moving when you’re backing a big underdog.
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There’s just too much to like from Sam Houston State’s first game — and the back-half of last year — to ignore them as a 21.5-point underdog against a team that will be under heaps of pressure to get into rhythm before starting conference play against TCU on Sept. 14.
Back the Bearkats to keep this respectable and don’t shy away from a sprinkle on the first-half moneyline as they could catch the Knights by surprise in this one.
The Bet: Sam Houston State +21.5 (-110, Caesars)
