2024 season: Eliminated on Sept. 26, 2nd in AL West
Let’s take a look at the season that was for the 2024 Seattle Mariners, the questions the team must address this winter and the early outlook for 2025.
Read more: 2024 MLB offseason previews: What’s next for the White Sox, A’s, Cubs and more?
Things that went right
The Mariners pitched as well as any team in baseball and head into the final days of the season as the MLB leaders in ERA. Their rotation was remarkable, as Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo all had outstanding seasons, with ERAs under 3.70 and WHIPs under 1.20.
All five starters were especially dominant at their pitcher-friendly home park, and their success was supported by a strong K:BB ratio from each. The bullpen was no slouch either, led by Andrés Muñoz and Austin Voth.
Things that went wrong
No matter how well the pitching staff fared, it couldn’t make up for an underwhelming offense. Seattle ranks among the bottom 10 teams in runs scored, and the Mariners struck out more than any other club.
Julio Rodríguez entered the 2024 season as one of baseball’s biggest superstars, but by September, he was simply trying to be a league-average hitter. The 23-year-old didn’t experience notable changes in his strikeout or walks rates, but his average exit velocity and barrel rate took significant dips. The changes to his batted-ball profile led to far fewer extra-base hits. Rodríguez also started the season slowly, and shortly after he turned things around in July, he suffered an ankle injury that led to an IL stint. A hot September couldn’t make up for a lackluster season overall.
J.P. Crawford also regressed dramatically after a career year in 2023. Ty France struggled to the point that he was placed on waivers in late July. Jorge Polanco was acquired in a January trade after an effective career in Minnesota but then endured the worst of his 11 campaigns. Mitch Garver signed a two-year contract to be the team’s designated hitter but couldn’t even hit .200.
Offseason plans
The simple task for team president Jerry Dipoto and general manager Justin Hollander is to fix Seattle’s offense while leaving the pitching staff alone. All five members of Seattle’s standout rotation are under contract for at least three more seasons. Of course, injuries can wreak havoc on a pitching staff at any time, but it would take a real string of bad luck for this rotation to be anything worse than excellent. The bullpen could use another high-leverage reliever after losing Ryne Stanek at the trade deadline, but the effectiveness of the starters keeps the relief corps from being overworked.
The Mariners’ batting order should undergo massive changes this winter, considering how the club fared this season. The outfield has some stability, with Rodríguez in center field and Randy Arozarena in left. Arozarena struggled offensively this year, with both the Rays and the Mariners, but at his best, he’s someone who can significantly impact a game in a variety of ways. Another former Tampa Bay player, Luke Raley, got on track after struggling in April. He can start against right-handers, either in right field or at DH. The club will also have one more year with Haniger, who has mostly struggled since going deep 39 times in 2021.
Power-hitting catcher Cal Raleigh will anchor an infield that is mostly unsettled. Crawford has two years left on a five-year contract, which means he’ll get the chance to bounce back at shortstop. There are no obvious answers at first base or second base, and the team could use an improvement at the hot corner, as Josh Rojas is a solid defender but underwhelming hitter.
Prospects on the horizon
Good things are happening in the Mariners’ farm system. The organization doesn’t have a top-10 prospect, but it has a deep group of players who are projected to have productive MLB careers. And the best news is that all of Seattle’s top prospects are position players.
Colt Emerson and Cole Young, the team’s first-round draft selections in 2023 and 2022, respectively, could one day turn double plays for the Mariners. Young is two years older and further through the farm system than Emerson, which makes him the better candidate to debut next season. With the Mariners’ needs throughout the infield, they could give Young, who has primarily played shortstop, a chance to be their second baseman earlier than expected.
Tyler Locklear played more than half his 2024 minor-league games at the Triple-A level and also had brief opportunities with the Mariners. Although he didn’t find immediate success in the majors, the 23-year-old is a candidate to open 2025 in Seattle.
Harry Ford is another unique and exciting prospect. He has rare athleticism for a catcher, as he excels at getting on base and swiping bags. Ford could join the team at some point in 2025, sharing catcher duties with Raleigh and getting some work as a DH. He also dabbled in the outfield this year.
Lazaro Montes is the final prospect worth mentioning. Just 19 years old, Montas is likely a couple of years away, but he has shown terrific power and on-base skills in the low minors. He could roam the outfield at T-Mobile Park by 2026.
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Goals for 2025
The Mariners can’t continue to waste a pitching staff this good. The 2024 season was a big step backward for a team that won at least 88 games each of the previous three campaigns, and the blame for that decline is clearly placed at the feet of the position players.
Dipoto and Hollander will be tasked this offseason with finding ways to add offense without detracting from the team’s rotation depth. If they can do that, Seattle will be well-positioned to challenge an Astros organization that has won the AL West in seven of the past eight seasons.
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Fantasy focus
Rodríguez will be one of the toughest players for fantasy managers to rank in 2025 drafts. He has one of the highest ceilings of any player, but there’s inherent risk in spending a first- or second-round selection on someone coming off such a disappointing season. Still, Rodríguez will be the first Mariner selected in every fantasy draft.
Shortly after Rodríguez comes off the board, there will be a flood of Seattle starters. Gilbert, Kirby, Castillo, Miller and Woo will all be selected in the early rounds of drafts. Meanwhile, Arozarena will be a poor man’s version of Rodríguez — someone who let fantasy managers down in 2024 but could make a major fantasy impact in 2025. Muñoz will also carry significant fantasy value, despite having posted a mediocre saves total this year.
