If you joined a March Madness pool this year and live in the Greater New York City Area, it’s more likely than not at least someone in that pool chose St. John’s to win it all.
There’s some geographical bias to that of course, but those Red Storm faithfuls looked a little smarter Friday after the wire-to-wire 79-53 first-round victory over No. 12 Northern Iowa.
Even though most did not expect an upset, it was a convincing performance from the fifth-seeded Johnnies, who have now won 20 of their last 21 games.
St. John’s blew the contest open instantly — 13-0 in three minutes, six early 3s and a first half that buried Northern Iowa before it could even find its footing.
Zuby Ejiofor finished with 14 points and 11 rebounds as the dominant force in the paint on both ends of the floor.
The Johnnies carry that statement into a date with the No. 4 Kansas Jayhawks on Sunday as 3.5-point favorites.
St. John’s vs. Kansas prediction, odds
Kansas plays a scrappy defensive game and it revolves around the mature, three-level scoring talents of Darryn Peterson.
Peterson’s 28 points powered the Jayhawks to a 68-60 decision over Cal Baptist, a game where late runs tested the Jayhawks’ defensive resolve.
A lot hinges on how much Peterson can continue to produce in this game.
Even when physically uninhibited in his 37 minutes on the floor Friday, possessions stalled while Kansas looked to get him the ball.
St. John’s aggressive interior defense and defensive rotations are designed to slow down ball handlers like Peterson, forcing him into contested mid-range shots or pick-and-roll situations that can drag momentum.
Throughout the Johnnies’ 20-1 run, they have held opponents to only 63 points per game, forcing 6.8 steals and 5.2 blocks.
And while their own shooting from deep is weak (33.3 percent), they compensate with offensive rebounding and a disciplined half-court defense that limits high-percentage looks.
Besides, Peterson’s 20-plus points in four of his last six games have primarily come through methodical half-court sets.
The Johnnies’ field-goal defense is also strong; they limit opponents to 42 percent shooting, and their interior presence through Ejiofor and Bryce Hopkins creates a bottleneck in the paint.
The biggest concern for Kansas is whether this turns into a repeat of the Houston game, where a physical, defensive opponent completely disrupted them in the Big 12 Tournament.
St. John’s has the profile to do that: top-10 defense, low opponent scoring (63.0 PPG over the last 10), and a willingness to grind.
Kansas also hasn’t shot particularly well recently (39.8 percent over the last 10), which plays directly into St. John’s strengths.
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Flory Bidunga anchors Kansas’ interior defense, averaging 2.6 blocks and 9.2 rebounds per game. He won Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year by pressuring opponents into low-percentage shots and sucking up a wealth of offensive rebounds.
It’s two of KenPom’s top 11 teams in defensive rating and it’s a game that’s projected as the Round of 32’s biggest coin flip since before the tournament started: Rick Pitino’s rigidity against one of college basketball’s best — and most volatile — players.
THE PLAY: Under 144.5 (-110, bet365)
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Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
