In fantasy football, we’re always looking to punch that easy button. Why run uphill when you don’t have to? Go where the points flow naturally, and go where the points are likely concentrated among the fewest amount of players.
Today’s exercise is to discuss offenses in totality, the teams that figure to be easy buttons because of the dependable indicators we chase every year.
Detroit Lions: Continuity, narrow usage tree, indoor schedule
The Lions are keeping the band together after a deep run in 2023, and that’s a glorious thing. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson was retained, perhaps for his final season in Detroit (he’ll be a head coach soon enough). Quarterback Jared Goff got paid. The Lions’ usage tree is narrow, with just two backs of note (David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs), a quarterback who doesn’t run much, and two dynamic options in the passing game (first-round floor god Amon-Ra St. Brown, and sophomore TE star Sam LaPorta). The league’s best offensive line keeps the unit protected and the running lanes clear. A climate-controlled schedule is the cherry on top of the Detroit sundae, with 14 indoor games.
Maybe Jameson Williams grows into a credible fantasy starter, maybe not. Every other primary player in the Detroit offense is looking at a cushy setup.
Atlanta Falcons: Dream schedule, indoor games, adults in the room
It’s never been a question about the skill talent in Atlanta, it’s always been a matter of getting the right people in the quarterback and play-calling seats. Finally for 2024, mission accomplished — Kirk Cousins can still play at a high level, and new OC Zac Robinson is an intriguing hire from the Sean McVay coaching tree. Most of Atlanta’s productions will be centered around its young triplets of Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts. It’s exciting to draft players still on the escalator, and the tight concentration of this offense is also a win.
Fantasy strength of schedule is often a fool’s errand, because the middle of those imprecise rankings don’t offer us much. We want outliers for that kind of stat, and the Falcons have by far the easiest SOS projected for 2024. Weather is also unlikely to muck up this team, with 14 games indoors or in warm climates. Saddle up.
Arizona Cardinals: Narrow usage tree, ascending talents, possible carnival
Before we talk about the Arizona offense, let’s take note of the Cardinals defense — it’s likely to be one of the worst in the NFL. This can be a delightful thing for a team’s fantasy offense, as games routinely become shootouts. It’s a dream for fantasy, with increased volume, quicker pace, more potential stats for everybody.
The Cardinals have fun players on offense, too. Trey McBride is one of the rising TE stars in the league, and Marvin Harrison Jr. enters the NFL as a decorated prospect, the son of a Hall of Fame wideout. Kyler Murray‘s career has been derailed by recent injury, but remember he was QB8, QB3 and QB10 in his first three seasons. A healthy Murray, with better support from his offense, can easily beat or perhaps even smash his current ADP.
There should be a right answer in the backfield too, whether it be veteran James Conner or (eventually) high-upside backup Trey Benson. Let’s chase some points in the desert.
Kansas City Chiefs: Positive regression, elite infrastructure
Last year the Chiefs had the worst offense of the Patrick Mahomes era — just 15th in points, and a modest ninth in yards. And the joke was on the league, because eventually the Chiefs ironed out their wrinkles and won the Super Bowl. Starting with Mahomes (the league’s best player) and legendary play-designer Reid is an unfair advantage.
Pay specific attention to two ascending talents who spread their wings in the second half of last year — Isiah Pacheco now has the backfield more or less to himself, and Rashee Rice was a target hog after Thanksgiving. The genie is out of the bottle with these players, and they get to enjoy the easy downhill track of a Mahomes and Reid offense.
Things are more cloudy at the other spots — Travis Kelce enters his age-35 season and Hollywood Brown (dinged up) and Xavier Worthy have skills that overlap — but anytime you can draft a primary part of a Kansas City offense, you’re excited for what’s possible.
Also Receiving Votes:
— Baltimore is once again a destination offense, with Lamar Jackson coming off his second MVP and Derrick Henry the likely bet to lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns. Zay Flowers has superstar upside, too.
— Sean McVay is a wizard with the play sheet, and the Rams passing game will be dominated by alphas Puka Nakua and Cooper Kupp.
— Anthony Richardson is still a pick on spec, off a checkered and brief college career and then an injury-mucked rookie season. But Richardson’s upside can’t be denied, and we love the designs of head coach Shane Steichen. Jonathan Taylor will dominate the backfield touches and is a target at ADP, while Michael Pittman is the undeniable first read when the Colts look downfield.
— The Eagles have a little more offensive striation with Saquon Barkley in town, but the downfield focus is dominated by A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Is this the year a few of those Jalen Hurts short touchdown runs turn into touchdown passes? Fantasy managers would benefit more globally if that happens.
— Green Bay head Matt LaFleur probably deserves credit as one of the five best offensive designers in the league; maybe this year his reputation gets the bump it deserves. Jordan Love turned into a star during the second half of 2023, and there are plenty of plus wideouts at his disposal. The crowded nature of this receiver room (the tight ends aren’t bad either) kept the Packers from being in the main section of this article, but if you find the right answer to the nebulous target question, you’re looking at a sweet payoff. The bottom line is that LaFleur and Love deserve our trust.
