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Texans vs. Patriots prediction: Divisional Round picks, odds, best bets for NFL playoffs

texans-vs.-patriots-prediction:-divisional-round-picks,-odds,-best-bets-for-nfl-playoffs
Texans vs. Patriots prediction: Divisional Round picks, odds, best bets for NFL playoffs
New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) passes in the first half of an NFL wild-card playoff football game against the Los Angeles Chargers, in Foxborough, Mass., Sunday, Jan. 11, 2026.
New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) passes in the first half of an NFL wild-card playoff football game against the Los Angeles Chargers, in Foxborough, Mass., Sunday, Jan. 11, 2026. AP

The Texans head to New England as a slight underdog to take on the Patriots during the early game of Sunday’s NFL Divisional Round action. 

Drake Maye has enjoyed a dream season, his second in the NFL, but he’ll get perhaps his toughest test yet against a fierce Houston defense. 

The Texans have been one of the best in the league at both the pass and run, but quarterbacks in particular have been awful against them. 

Allowing just 5.7 yards per pass, which was the third-fewest in the league, the Texans didn’t give up more than 278 yards in a game this season. 

Only five times did they allow more than 200 passing yards in a game. 

Their scary pass defense was on full display on Monday night when they held Aaron Rodgers to just 146 passing yards. 

The weather won’t do Maye any favors, either. 

New England Patriots player Mac Jones with jersey number 10, hands in a pouch, wearing a helmet and looking down.
Drake Maye #10 of the New England Patriots looks on during the third quarter of the AFC Wild Card Playoff game against the Los Angeles Chargers at Gillette Stadium on January 11, 2026 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. Getty Images

There’s potential for snow and rain at Gillette Stadium while temperatures could drop into the mid-20s during the game. 

With a tough task in the pass game, I’m expecting Maye to use his legs, which he’s been doing much more of late, averaging 39.4 yards on the ground over his last five games. 


Betting on the NFL?


Maye couldn’t have been much better this season heading into Sunday’s game, but he might be in for a reality check with the Texans chasing him down. 

The play: Drake Maye to have fewer than 221.5 passing yards (-115, FanDuel Sportsbook) and more than 34.5 rushing yards (-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)


Why Trust New York Post Betting

Dylan Svoboda is a versatile writer and analyst across many sports. He’s particularly knowledgeable about the big three — MLB, the NFL and the NBA.

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NFL Divisional Round player props, picks: Best bets for Sunday’s slate

texans-vs.-patriots-prediction:-nfl-divisional-round-picks,-odds,-bets

Texans vs. Patriots prediction: NFL Divisional Round picks, odds, bets