Texas is still overvalued.
The Longhorns have played a laughably easy schedule, with five of their six SEC wins coming against teams with losing records.
Texas A&M will be the best defense Texas has faced all season.
After posting questionable offensive numbers against Arkansas (4.2 yards per play), Vanderbilt (5.6 yards per play), and Georgia (3.4 yards per play), I don’t see the ’Horns showing up in a callous road environment. It’s also worth mentioning Quinn Ewers is dealing with a nagging ankle injury.
I don’t love the Aggies offense, but I upgraded them after switching from Connor Weigman to Marcel Reed at quarterback.
Reed can be very effective running an RPO-based scheme, as seen in last week’s road matchup with a borderline-elite Auburn defense (41 points, 7.8 yards per play, 55% success rate).
Texas A&M also has a significant advantage on special teams, the ever-undervalued third phase of the game.
For what it’s worth, Mike Elko’s Duke teams went 3-1 against the spread as a home underdog, covering by over 10 points per game on average.
The pick: Texas A&M +5.5
Air Force (-4.5) over SAN DIEGO STATE
San Diego State is a horrific two-way football team.
Nevertheless, the Aztecs are most vulnerable against opposing rushing attacks, ranking 118th nationally in EPA per Rush allowed, 112th in rush success rate allowed, and 130th in Stuff Rate.
That doesn’t bode well against a triple-option attack.
Though Air Force has been virtually lifeless for much of the season, the Falcons have trended up as the season has progressed, winning three consecutive games as underdogs — including a 36-28 win over Fresno State as 10-point underdogs three weeks ago.
Meanwhile, San Diego State has lost five straight games, including three by over 20 points.
VANDERBILT (+11) over Tennessee
Diego Pavia’s Commodores are auto-bets as big underdogs.
They run a down-tempo, rush-heavy, quasi-triple-option attack that shortens the game, churns the clock, limits possessions and makes it difficult for opposing offenses to build margin.
As such, Vanderbilt is 7-1 against the spread as an underdog this season.
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Though Tennessee boasts an elite defense, I’m continually underwhelmed by Nico Iamaleava and the Volunteers offense, which means they don’t profile well as a big favorite.
As such, the Vols are 0-4 ATS as a double-digit favorite in SEC play.
Last week: 1-1. Kansas (W), Northwestern (L)
2024 season: 21-15.
