A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy football categories doesn’t always tell the whole story of how a player is performing. Dalton Del Don attempts to identify misleading numbers that are worth a closer look.
Yes … The Numbers Do Lie.
Jahmyr Gibbs’ RB4 rank is a lie
Gibbs averaged 23 touches, 132 yards from scrimmage and 0.67 TDs over three games without David Montgomery last season. He’s averaged 124.3 total yards and scored six touchdowns over three games in which Montgomery left mid-game this year. Gibbs has been a great draft pick, but he’s about to become a league-winning one as fantasy’s RB1 down the stretch with Montgomery out.
The Lions are dealing with a bunch of injuries, but their offense remains highly potent having scored 74 points over the last two weeks. Dan Campbell has “a ton of confidence” in Gibbs handling a bigger workload, and he gets a Bears’ defense Sunday allowing the fifth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to running backs over the last five weeks.
Meet fantasy’s new RB1.
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Thomas Jr. has been fantasy’s WR2 over three games since Jacksonville’s bye, and he owns the eighth highest first-read target share (37.5%) over the last month. BTJ nearly had a massive performance two games ago, and he almost scored three touchdowns last week. Moreover, Thomas Jr. was fed eight screens last week, which tied for the most in a game to a wide receiver this season. Thomas Jr. boasts the fifth-highest utilization score since Week 11, and he’ll continue to benefit from Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis and Evan Engram all being out.
The rookie wideout has and will continue to be hampered by quarterback play, but his season long fantasy rank is also misleading thanks to a chest injury he played through. Thomas Jr. recorded the best yards per route run mark (2.81) by a rookie WR since 2001 before suffering the injury in Week 8; he was fantasy’s WR63 over three games while acting more as a decoy before emerging healthier after Jacksonville’s Week 12 bye. Mac Jones has been competent, and Thomas Jr.’s role has become elite. He gets two defenses among the biggest recent fallers in EPA/dropback allowed during the upcoming fantasy championship weeks.
Thomas Jr. looks like a top-10 WR down the stretch.
Rico Dowdle’s RB26 rank is a lie
Dowdle leads the NFL in rushing yards over the last three weeks, when he’s been fantasy’s RB8 despite scoring just one touchdown. He’s taken over as Dallas’ workhorse back, seeing 70 opportunities over the last three games. He sports an 8.1 Utilization Score over that span that usually leads to RB1 production. His route share has jumped to fourth highest among RBs over the last two weeks, and Dowdle is due for TD regression; he’s been the league’s most efficient back and has a major role in the red zone. Dowdle has nine red-zone touches over the last three games, when he’s handled 100% of the team’s rush attempts inside the five. Cooper Rush has five touchdown passes over the last two games, so it hasn’t been a Cowboys’ offense issue.
That said, Dowdle has benefitted from an incredibly favorable schedule that’s about to flip. He first gets a Buccaneers’ defense allowing the fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to running backs over the last five weeks followed by an Eagles’ D yielding the second fewest this season (no RB has reached 100 rushing yards versus Philadelphia this year). Tampa Bay and Philadelphia rank second and first in EPA/rush allowed since Week 9. Dowdle’s season long fantasy rank remains misleading given his dramatic role change; he’s the RB13 in this week’s “expert consensus ranks.” But his remaining schedule is a hurdle.
Terry McLaurin’s box score last week was a lie
McLaurin pulled down two touchdown catches in the first half and matched his season-high with 10 targets last week. But his big fantasy game could’ve been huge. Jayden Daniels just missed a wide-open McLaurin during a busted coverage that would’ve gone for a walk-in 62-yard touchdown. He also underthrew an open McLaurin on a would-be 54-yard TD and overthrew him on another potential 52-yard score all in the second half. McLaurin led the league in unrealized air yards (121) as a result, serving as a reminder of what could have been.
Terry McLaurin caught 7 of 10 targets for 73 yards and 2 TDs on Sunday.
The incomplete targets:
-Overthrown potential 52-yard TD
-Potential 62-yard TD off fingertips
-Underthrown potential 54-yard TD (toughest of the three) pic.twitter.com/MTmRlC57ZT— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) December 16, 2024
While McLaurin and Daniels left a bunch of yards on the field (although it’s worth noting two of the aforementioned near big plays occurred during the same drive), he still finished as fantasy’s WR5 in an expanded role last week. McLaurin lined up on the opposite side of the field more than ever, when he also saw season-highs in routes and targets after pre-snap motion. McLaurin was used differently coming out of Washington’s bye and with Noah Brown out for the season, so more big performances could be coming (the Commanders get a tough matchup against the Eagles this week but then a highly favorable one versus the Falcons in the fantasy championship).
McLaurin is already up to 11 touchdowns this season after averaging just five over his first five years in the league, but he could have even more.
