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Sean Allen, Special to ESPN.comOct 2, 2024, 11:00 AM ET
They don’t make shot blockers like they used to.
In 2014-15, Kris Russell of the Calgary Flames rode his physical play to 147.6 fantasy points from hits and blocked shots alone. He averaged 1.87 fantasy points per game (FPPG) from only throwing checks and getting in front of pucks. All told, he finished with 203.7 fantasy points, ranking third overall among skaters for the season.
It’s a wild total to consider; thinking about the idea that Russell’s physical fantasy categories accounted for the same rate of fantasy points as Dylan Strome or Jordan Kyrou gave us last season overall, which placed them mid-80s for ranking among skaters.
But the opening to this article was a misdirection, because the fact is that we are living in the golden age of physical play. We may not get individual monsters like Russell or Dan Girardi, who both have six separate seasons among the 100 players since 2009-10 that have earned at least 100 fantasy points from hits and blocked shots (let’s shorten that to FPHBS from here on in); But last year accounted for the most players from a single season among that same top 100. There were 15 players in 2023-24 that posted more than 100 points from FPHBS alone.
One hundred defensemen recorded at least 100 FPHBS over the last 15 years, including 15 from last season listed at the side here. Unsurprisingly, every single one of the 15 players finished among the top 250 skaters in fantasy points last season. Some of them used the FPHBS as a jumping point to fuel fantastic fantasy returns: Weegar was 13th overall, Seider was 23rd, Carlson was 29th and Parayko was tied for 40th.
So what situation spurs this kind of production with FPHBS?
Well, being on the blue line is the first prerequisite.
(We’ll deal with forwards in the second half of this article, when we bring shots on goal into the mix.)
Ice time helps. Ten of the 15 players that topped 100 FPHBS last season ranked among the top 100 in ice time per game. Being a penalty-killer is important, as 11 of the 15 were among the top 100 in shorthanded time on ice per game. Both those factors track logically: the more you are on the ice, the more you can make plays; and, when on the kill, job No. 1 is to block pucks from getting to the net.
The trick in shallower or even medium-sized fantasy leagues is not necessarily to prognosticate which players will emerge as new physical threats, but rather to be aware that such players have value and are underappreciated. Of the 15 players already mentioned, eight are available in at least 30% of ESPN leagues.
Now, if you do play in a deeper format, or just like being ahead of the competition, it’s worth considering some of the defenders who could be the next big thing for FPHBS. We are looking for players available in virtually every ESPN league (available in 97% or more), ranked low in ice time per game, but have high FPHBS rate stats (looking at FPHBS per 60).
Nick Seeler, Philadelphia Flyers 16:56 per game last season with 5.77 FPHBS per 60 minutes: If Seeler can stay on the second pairing and if Jamie Drysdale earns more ice time as well, Seeler could bump closer to the 20 minutes per game many second-pairing defenders get (the third and fourth ranked defenders in total ice time for each team last season collectively averaged 19:26 per game). With an extra 90 seconds per game, Seeler could push into must-start territory.
Ilya Lyubushkin, Dallas Stars 17:07 per game last season with 4.81 FPHBS per 60 minutes: It’s the same story here, but with a little more competition. If Lyubushkin can earn a role on the second pair, he could edge his ice time up. But he might not get the massive penalty-killing time he earned last season. His 2:42 per game shorthanded was higher than the average for the top penalty-killing pairs across the league (2:40).
Jacob Bernard-Docker, Ottawa Senators 15:41 per game last season with 4.47 FPHBS per 60 minutes: With some sneaky-good fantasy rates last season, Bernard-Docker would need more ice time to truly get into the fantasy mix. Unfortunately, he probably isn’t a top-four D on the Sens, even with Erik Brannstrom out the door. The saving grace here could be the penalty kill, where he only averaged 1:27 last season (second-pairing defenders averaged 1:53 last season). If the Sens want to limit Jake Sanderson‘s overall ice time, perhaps Bernard-Docker moves up the shorthanded depth chart.
Kevin Bahl, Calgary Flames 17:23 per game last season with 2.8 FPHBS per 60 minutes: Danil Miromanov and Jake Bean are far from locks for the Calgary Flames top pairings. There’s an opportunity for the Flames haul in the Jacob Markstrom deal to show his worth. His FPHBS rates weren’t as high as some others, but three more minutes per game on the second pairing would go a long way.
Simon Edvinsson, Detroit Red Wings 18:15 per game last season with 3.10 FPHBS per 60 minutes: If all goes as planned for Edvinsson, 20 minutes per game should be no problem. He could even end up on the top penalty-killing unit if he is as ready as he looked in limited play last season (16 games).
Shots fired
In its basic available data, the NHL doesn’t have “shot attempts blocked” until the 2022-23 season. That means we have two seasons of available data to check out overall shot attempt percentage, which would be the total number of attempted shots by a player that end up becoming an actual shot on goal.
Shots on goal are not only great for fantasy hockey because they are inherently worth 0.1 points, but also because they are, naturally, a prerequisite for a goal. An individual’s shot attempts would encompass the sum of all of their shots on goal, goals, missed shots (which the NHL has tracked for a while) and shot attempts blocked. A player’s shot attempt percentage would be how many of those attempts were successful (shot on goal or goal) against the overall total.
The average shot attempt percentage for the 196 forwards with at least 200 shot attempts in each of the past two seasons is 51.3% of shots making it on goal. For defensemen, the average is 43.9% for the 76 with at least 200 shot attempts in each of the past two seasons. That makes sense, as a shot from the blue line has a better chance of missing or being blocked than a shot from closer to the net.
And this absolutely tracks among the forwards, too, as the 34 players with a shot attempt percentage greater than 60% includes many of the top 10 players listed by the NHL’s new EDGE statistics as the leaders in high-danger shots on goal. Joel Eriksson-Ek (64.5%), Brady Tkachuk (64.2%), Zach Hyman (61.7%), Anders Lee (61.4%), John Tavares (60.2%) and Matthew Tkachuk (60.1%) make up six of the top 10 from last season in high-danger shots, according to EDGE, and Connor McDavid (62.8%) was among the EDGE’s top 10 from 2022-23.
Of those 196 forwards in our data with at least 200 shot attempts in both of the past two seasons, 16 of them had a drop in their goal total of at least six goals. Every single one of them had at least a 1.6% drop in their shot attempts percentage, with many ranging closer to a 5% drop.
Conversely, 14 players had an increase of at least six goals, but for them we get a mixed bag of how their shot attempt percentage changed. It ranges from Trevor Moore adding eight goals, but having his shot attempts percentage drop by -7.7%, to Kyle Palmieri, who added nine goals and increased his shot attempts percentage by 5%. Anecdotally, Moore started taking way more shot attempts (5.7 per game, compared to 4.6), while Palmieri started taking them from in closer (1.04 high-danger shots per game last season compared to 0.76 in 2022-23, per EDGE).
What can we do with this information?
My first instinct is to seek players that experienced a drop in shot attempts percentage that are in a situation where they might get more success this season. That gives us players with a track record of trying to get lots of pucks on the net, who didn’t have as much success last season as they did in 2022-23. Perhaps they can rebound this coming campaign. More pucks successfully on the net, means more chances for fantasy points.
Here are some cherry-picked players that showed a dip in how many of their shot attempts were making it on goal last season:
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Teuvo Teravainen, Chicago Blackhawks: -11.7 change in shot attempts percentage
Sam Bennett, Florida Panthers: -11.3 change
Oliver Bjorkstrand, Seattle Kraken: -10.9 change
Philipp Kurashev, Chicago Blackhawks: -10.3 change
Mason McTavish, Anaheim Ducks: -10.0 change
Kevin Fiala, Los Angeles Kings: -8.8 change
Brock Boeser, Vancouver Canucks: -8.3 change
Evan Rodrigues, Florida Panthers: -8.0 change
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Edmonton Oilers: -7.8 change
Yegor Sharangovich, Calgary Flames: -7.8 change
Andrew Mangiapane, Washington Capitals: -7.8 change
Trevor Moore, Los Angeles Kings: -7.7 change
Aleksander Barkov, Florida Panthers: -7.7 change
Carter Verhaeghe, Florida Panthers: -7.6 change
Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh Penguins: -7.5 change
Mikael Backlund, Calgary Flames: -7.2 change
Adam Henrique, Edmonton Oilers: -7.0 change
Matt Boldy, Minnesota Wild: -7.0 change
Of this group, I could see Teravainen taking on a different role this season if he lucks out with an assignment alongside Connor Bedard. Mangiapane might have a turn of fortune if he can do the same alongside Alex Ovechkin. Fiala’s fates could be altered if he finds a groove with Quinton Byfield as his new full-time center.
While I’m not so sure I’m sold on the inverse logic being inherently as interesting, here are the leaders that saw a spike in their shot attempts percentage:
Brock Nelson, New York Islanders: 6.3 change in shot attempts percentage
Kyle Palmieri, New York Islanders: 5.0 change
Gabriel Vilardi, Winnipeg Jets: 4.9 change
James van Riemsdyk, Columbus Blue Jackets: 4.0 change
Cole Caufield, Montreal Canadiens: 3.7 change
Mathew Barzal, New York Islanders: 3.2 change
Jack Roslovic, Carolina Hurricanes: 3.1 change
Kirill Marchenko, Columbus Blue Jackets: 2.7 change
Tim Stutzle, Ottawa Senators: 2.5 change
Jack Eichel, Vegas Golden Knights: 2.4 change
Elias Lindholm, Boston Bruins: 2.3 change
Kevin Hayes, Pittsburgh Penguins: 2.3 change
Joel Farabee, Philadelphia Flyers: 2.2 change
David Perron, Ottawa Senators: 2.2 change
It seems the Islanders changed their collective focus last season to start making sure pucks were on target. Eichel’s shot accuracy also gets highlighted here, as he didn’t take as many from in close as some of the other leaders in shot attempt percentage, yet he leads all of the forwards that took at least 200 attempts in the past two seasons (except Kings bottom-sixer Trevor Lewis) when it comes to overall percentage (64.9%).
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