KANSAS CITY, Mo. — In the aftermath of a Game 2 Yankee loss, Aaron Boone was doing his incredulous act regarding questions about Aaron Judge’s October struggles — and I get it.
Boone was hired because management wanted a guy who would sooner swig paint thinner than publicly criticize one of his players. And also because Boone knows he was handling similar inquiries during Judge’s April doldrums and scoffed at those, saying basically: “Just watch.” The reward was a near-certain second AL MVP season.
But, of course, that was April. This is October. There is not a long season ahead — just a long winter if Judge does not stir and stir quickly. If anyone should understand the value of signature moments for this organization at this time of year, it is Boone. After all, even if he were willing to swig paint thinner by the gallon, he was only on the radar to become Yankees manager because he hit a forever homer for this franchise in October 2004.
So Aaron Boone currently has more forever postseason moments than Aaron Judge.
Also, Boone is not dealing with a bigger picture. This is not just a 2024 Division Series problem. Judge has an infield single and four strikeouts against Kansas City and is now at .208 for 46 career playoff games with 70 strikeouts in 207 plate appearances — that 33.8 percent whiff mark is the second-highest ever for the postseason (minimum 175 plate appearances) to light-hitting catcher Martin Maldonado (34.2 percent). From 2022 through these two Division Series games, Judge is 6-for-43 with three RBIs and 19 strikeouts.
“He’s going to get more opportunities,” Boone said. “And I’ll continue to place my bets on him.”
What choice does Boone have?
These Yankees can’t get to the Canyon of Heroes — and maybe not even by the Royals — without their captain coming alive. The Yankees go as their stars go. They are a homer-dependent team. And they go best when their biggest star is hitting those homers.
So when Boone is trying to protect Judge by noting he had a walk and an infield single in Game 2, it is important to note he is not talking about Jon Berti.
The Royals have outplayed the Yankees over two games. The best chance to deliver a knockout blow in each game and make the Royals believe they were in the wrong weight class belonged to Judge — two on, no out, first inning, tie score in both games. He struck out both times.
And those strikeouts underscored two huge issues for Judge at this time of year — he has been particularly bad with runners in scoring position and just about helpless with two strikes.
Judge is 6-for-35 (.171) with runners in scoring position in the postseason. But since his best October in 2017, it has only cratered — 2-for-23 (.087) with 12 strikeouts.
When the count reaches two strikes, Judge is 13-for-113 (.115) in the playoffs with two homers and 70 strikeouts. In his last 20 plate appearances with two strikes, Judge is 0-for-18 with two walks and 11 strikeouts.
Here is the truly staggering: Since Game 3 of a 2019 Division Series, Judge has had 66 playoff plate appearances reach two strikes. He has 40 strikeouts, six walks and three hits — all singles, none of which have left the infield. His last postseason extra-base hit with two strikes was against David Price in Game 1 of a 2018 Division Series.
What makes it more confounding is that Judge is not just a brutish power hitter — he is a brilliant hitter. During the regular season, he led the majors (minimum 75 plate appearances) with a 1.220 OPS with runners in scoring position. He was second in OPS with two strikes at .811 — which was 80 points better than his previous best.
Great players can become undone at this time of year. The Dodgers’ Mookie Betts went into his Division Series Game 3 as a .245 postseason hitter and 0-for-his-last-22. Kansas City’s Bobby Witt Jr., the likely MVP runner-up to Judge, was 0-for-10 with four strikeouts through two games.
But some players rise. Bryce Harper, for example. And a group of dynastic Yankees such as Derek Jeter, who performed similarly in October as he did from April to September (which is to say great) and augmented it with signature moments.
Conversely, perhaps because of the size/athletic combo, the strongest historic comp to Judge, Dave Winfield, is best remembered as a Yankee for going 1-for-22 in a 1981 World Series loss to the Dodgers. That ultimately led to George Steinbrenner dubbing Winfield as Mr. May. That was in contrast to Reggie Jackson’s Mr. October.
However, Jackson famously said that if you have a bat in your hand, you can rewrite the story. Think how Pete Alonso looked as if he would go 0-for-2024 for signature moments. And then in what could have been his final Mets at-bat — one out, two on in the ninth inning of a decisive Game 3 against the Brewers — Alonso hit a three-run homer off indomitable closer Devin Williams to propel the Mets to the Division Series.
So Judge can still rewrite this story. I don’t see how the Yankees get to The Canyon of Heroes if he doesn’t.
