Whoooo, boy — if last week’s divisional matchup is any indication of what we’re going to get tonight, then we’re in for another banger of a TNF game. Two of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the league square off tonight when Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders take on Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles.
Let’s go to the tale of the tape.
Finally — FINALLY — Terry McLaurin has the QB play to make him (even more of) a superstar
Those of us who know an elite wide receiver when we see him know just how good it feels to see Terry McLaurin having the best season of his career. Even if you don’t have him on your fantasy lineup, it’s wonderful to see him finally exiting the QB wilderness, and the spoils have already made themselves apparent.
McLaurin is third in the NFL in receiving yardage, third in touchdown catches and fifth in total fantasy points. And yeah, those are pretty surface-level stats. Want to go under the hood? Sure — I’ll let Andy Behrens take the wheel:
As good as the surface-level fantasy stats look for Terry, the underlying numbers are even better. He’s averaging 2.42 yards per route run, among the highest rates in the league, and he leads all receivers in contested catches. McLaurin has managed to haul in 17 of 23 contested balls (73.9%), which is just stupid. He’s been unreasonably good. His passer-rating when targeted is 130.3, and that honestly undersells his season. (Excerpt from today’s Get To The Points! newsletter
The Eagles’ secondary has gotten much better of late, but they’ll have their work cut out for them trying to slow down the Daniels-McLaurin connection. Scary Terry is a clear WR1 for this game, and for the rest of the season.
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Few receivers have been as consistent as Smith has this season. He’s averaging 6.25 targets and 61 yards per game played, and he’s scored four times. He started the season off with three straight double-digit fantasy-point outings before missing Week 4 with injury. Then the Eagles went on bye in Week 5, and Smith returned to post, you guessed it, double-digits in Week 6.
But then Smith had just one catch for negative-one yard in Week 7.
Smith followed that up with his best outing of the year in Week 8, and his third-best in Week 9.
And then two catches for 14 yards against Dallas last week.
Hey, I get it — even the best receivers have some dumbfounding stat lines. But there’s actually something interesting about those two disappointing games Smith has had this season: both those games were blowouts.
As good as Smith is, we have to admit: he’s the third option on offense. Saquon Barkley and A.J. Brown MUST touch the ball as much as possible, and that’s not even mentioning Jalen Hurts as a runner and Dallas Goedert at tight end. But it’s still interesting to see that, in competitive games, Smith has seen his number called on wayyy more than he has in the two games the Eagles have crushed their opponents.
Smith is likely an auto-starter in most leagues. But compare his output tonight with his upcoming game against the Rams, or his output in Week 13 vs. the Ravens with his output in Week 14 against the Panthers.
It might be a trend you can take advantage of.
Can we trust any other Commander receiver?
Noah Brown, Dyami Brown, Zach Ertz, Luke McCaffrey, Olamide Zaccheaus — do any of these guys have any fantasy juice, for this game or the future?
Spoiler alert: probably not.
Sure, Noah Brown is second in the wide receiver corps in targets and catches, but that’s 28 and 22 less than McLaurin, respectively. Ertz is second on the team as a whole in targets and catches, but he’s been more of a chain-mover than anything else, not a consistent weekly starter at the position. Dyami Brown, McCaffrey and Zaccheaus have been mostly bit players in this offense, with the occasional big play thrown in.
McCaffrey — and to a lesser extent, rookie tight end Ben Sinnott — haven’t taken the expected step forward that we usually see from first-year players at this point in the season. Maybe it’s due to the Commanders having their bye week in Week 14, but it’s a bit surprising. Perhaps we see both talented rookies receiving more work in this all-important game, but it’s likely not something to bank on.
All this is to say, Daniels has been incredible when you consider he really only has one elite option in the passing game. Fantasy managers love to see concentrated offensive trees, but I doubt any of us would say no to another startable option in this passing game, whether that’s to increase Daniels’ floor or to get a share in the results if someone emerges. Let’s see if anything pops in this game.
START: Austin Ekeler
Obviously, if Brian Robinson Jr. were to miss a third straight game, you’d be starting Ekeler unless you have an embarrassment of riches in your lineup, or you’re playing in a very shallow league.
I’m saying to start Ekeler even with BRob ready to play tonight.
Ekeler has been great the past two weeks in BRob’s stead, showing juice and power in the run game. But he’s also had his own standalone value when both backs have been active this season. Ekeler’s tied for 13th in the league with 4 runs of 20+ yards, and he’s averaging a robust 5.2 yards per carry this season. He’s also eighth in the league in receiving yards among backs, showing that the dual-threat talent that made him a fantasy star with the Chargers hasn’t gone away.
Yes, Robinson is cleared to play tonight, seemingly through the hamstring ailment that has held him out the past two games. But with the Commanders looking towards a potential playoff hope, it would behoove them to use both their talented backs, splitting work to keep both fresh and throw different looks at the Eagles’ defense. And even if BRob plays a full allotment of snaps, Ekeler’s ability will be needed as another weapon for Daniels in what could be a back-and-forth slugfest. Ekeler is a solid flex play this week.
