Week 4 in the NFL comes to a close as the 1-2 Dolphins host the 0-3 Titans in the first game of a “Monday Night Football” doubleheader.
Miami is a short 2.5-point home favorite despite starting its third quarterback (Tyler Huntley) in as many weeks due to injuries.
Despite being a career backup, Huntley has plenty of experience and even helped guide the Ravens to a 2022 playoff berth after Lamar Jackson injured his knee.
When you factor in Miami’s revolving door at quarterback with a Titans team that’s struggled offensively, there’s a promising path to a BetMGM same-game parlay with odds at +825.
Titans vs. Dolphins odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | +2.5 (-105) | +120 | o37 (-110) |
| Dolphins | -2.5 (-115) | -140 | u37 (-110) |
Titans vs. Dolphins same-game parlay
- Leg 1: Dolphins moneyline (-140)
- Leg 2: Tony Pollard over 49.5 rushing yards (-120)
- Leg 3: Tony Pollard over 2.5 receptions (-120)
- Leg 4: Titans under 18.5 points (-125)
Dolphins moneyline (-140)
Although the Dolphins are throwing Huntley right into the fire, the Titans might be the perfect opponent to face in his debut.
Tennessee gives away far too many possessions, ranking last with a -2.3 turnover margin. Will Levis won the starting quarterback job but continues to struggle in his second year. He has a 4/5 touchdown/interception ratio after posting an 8/4 mark as a rookie.
One of the biggest surprises is that Tennessee throws the ball much more under first-year head coach Brian Callahan. The Titans rank fourth with a pass-play rate of 62.6% after finishing 2023 at 55.7%. As a result, they aren’t giving much cover to their young quarterback to help minimize his mistakes.
Levis has thrown at least one interception in each game this season, and if that trend continues, it will be tough to envision the Titans pulling out a victory on the road.
Tony Pollard over 49.5 rushing yards (-120)
The Titans threw the ball 79% of the time in Week 3 after falling behind 17-7 to the Packers in the first quarter. Pollard had only six rushing attempts but was ineffective, with 2.3 yards per carry.
While the game got away from Tennessee, the pace should be much slower against the Dolphins, who will try to keep things as simple as possible for their new starting quarterback.
This is an excellent buy-low spot for Pollard since he’s coming off a poor showing.
He’s exceeded 49.5 rushing yards in 13 of his last 18 games (72%) and should fancy his chances against a Dolphins defense that ranks 31st in the For The Numbers run-DVOA metric.
Tony Pollard over 2.5 receptions (-120)
As the Titans starting running back, Pollard has gotten a steady dose of snaps, averaging at least 60% in each game this season. The sixth-year pro is also a decent pass-catcher, making him a legitimate option out of the backfield.
FTN lists the Titans as having the seventh-highest check-down rate at 12.8%, which is a good sign for Levis targeting his running backs.
Pollard has exceeded 2.5 receptions in each game this season and four of his last five. He ranks second (14) on the team in targets behind wide receiver Calvin Ridley (16). Pollard should have enough opportunities to cash this reception prop.
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Titans under 18.5 points (-125)
The Titans rank 28th in explosive passing plays (eight) and yards per play (4.5). They have struggled to move the ball down the field this season, and that task won’t get any easier on the road.
The total is 6-2 to the under in Tennessee’s last eight games on the road, and it has stayed under this team total in all three games this season. I’ll take my chances with those offensive woes continuing on Monday night.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. He’s cashed two 15-leg teasers in his betting career as well as a 12-leg parlay that included eight Little League World Series games. More recently, he accurately picked finalists in the 2024 European Championships and Copa America.
