As we approach the NBA offseason, several players’ situations are unclear, either due to unrestricted free agency status, or team/player options hanging over their heads.
Still, it’s time to break down the potential top point guards in this year’s free-agent market, with the free-agent negotiating window opening at 6 p.m. ET Monday.
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(Note: Positions are being determined off Basketball-Reference’s positional breakdowns, meaning a player will be listed at the position in which he played the most minutes. So if you’re looking for James Harden and Kyrie Irving, you’ll find them in the shooting guard section.)
Free-agent position rankings: Shooting guards | Small forwards | Power forwards | Centers
1. Fred VanVleet, Houston Rockets
Status: Agreed to 2-year, $50 million deal
Since becoming an All-Star in 2022, VanVleet has seen his scoring diminish every year since. That doesn’t mean he isn’t important to the Rockets as their main facilitator, but almost $45 million for a guy who barely cracked 14 points and didn’t even crack 38% shooting overall is a lot.
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Given that this year’s market flat-out isn’t flush with cash, the Rockets were wise to decline the $44.9 million option and negotiate a deal at a lesser price.
2. Chris Paul, San Antonio Spurs
Status: Unrestricted free agent
Paul loved his stay in San Antonio, which is worth noting in terms of his future, but the franchise did not make the postseason, which you have to assume is a priority to him.
Also a priority is spending time with his family, which means he’s likely exploring all angles. At 40 years old, could one of those options be retirement?
What makes sense: With Paul residing in California, and the Lakers acquiring Luka Dončić this past season, it may make sense to link up with him and LeBron James, the latter of whom is a close friend.
3. Tyus Jones, Phoenix Suns
Status: Unrestricted free agent
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Jones’ plan of signing with the Suns for a starting role and perhaps competing for a title didn’t go as planned as Phoenix failed to make the postseason. Could this influence his value? Given that he signed a minimum deal last summer, the arrow only points up if he decides to chase the money this summer.
The 29-year-old remains one of the league’s most secure ball-handlers and a strong 3-point shooter (41.4%), which virtually everyone has a use for.
What makes sense: Jones as a backup point guard on a good team, especially behind a young player in need of further development. Portland wouldn’t be a bad destination.
4. Josh Giddey, Chicago Bulls
Status: Restricted free agent
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The raw numbers make Giddey look like a future All-Star, but the advanced numbers unearth several concerning areas, such as a general shooting inefficiency and defensive issues — two key elements for most highly paid players in today’s league.
Chicago, however, appears to love the guy, which raises the question: Will it make him an offer outright, as opposed to letting him go through restricted free agency? If the Bulls jump the gun, that could add several million onto the books.
What makes sense: The Bulls hold all the cards here. Entering free agency believing otherwise could prove catastrophic. Let someone else dictate his market, because odds are good no one will break the bank for him despite the headline-grabbing stats.
5. Ty Jerome, Cleveland Cavaliers
Status: Unrestricted free agent
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There’s no question that Jerome turned in one of the most surprising seasons of any player in the league, as he carved out a role for himself on one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference, thus significantly raising his own value.
Of course, Cleveland’s roster is already expensive, and it doesn’t have Jerome’s full Bird rights, which only makes the situation that much more complicated. The Cavaliers have to prepare themselves for the likelihood Jerome is off to somewhere else for a bigger payday.
What makes sense: Jerome probably isn’t a starter on a team with tall aspirations, but he could be a perfectly valid sixth man who plays more than he did this year and puts up starting-caliber numbers with high shooting efficiency. There aren’t any teams around that couldn’t use that, so he should have several suitors to choose from. The Toronto Raptors, who are in need of guard depth, wouldn’t be a bad destination.
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Best of the rest
6. Malcolm Brogdon, Washington Wizards
Status: Unrestricted free agent
The 32-year-old is efficient and effective when on the floor, but his injury history indicates his floor time will be limited. Teams are keenly aware of this, so while he’ll have several suitors, don’t expect anyone to hand out a large contract. He’d make an interesting fit with the Lakers as a backup to Luka Dončić.
7. D’Angelo Russell, Brooklyn Nets
Status: Unrestricted free agent
Russell has reached the point in his career, where the secret is out. He’s not year-to-year consistent in his performance, and his defensive warts remain substantial. He can score a bit, shoot a bit and pass a bit, but rarely put it all together. Orlando should give him a look, but only at a price point it feels comfortable with.
8. Dennis Schröder, Detroit Pistons
Status: Unrestricted free agent
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Schröder is capable, he’s fast and he can get you points if you need them, even if you need them at a scaled up capacity. However, he remains an iffy shooter, his defense isn’t what it once was, and he’s getting older.
He’ll get a contract, but don’t expect it to run more than a couple of years and at a modest compensation level.
