In the first 99 games this college football season, Unders paid out 58% of the time. So naturally, we’re targeting a shootout.
We have a feisty underdog moving up in weight class as one of our two best bets this week.
Sam Houston at Central Florida (6:30 p.m. Eastern, ESPN+)
If you have the cachet or the cold, hard cash, you can hit it big in the transfer portal and change your fortunes overnight with a five-star quarterback.
The Sam Houstons of the world don’t have the luxury of a NIL war chest to lure recruits, but they do have a veteran coaching staff with above-average talent evaluation skills.
This past offseason, the BearKats brought in Jase Bauer from Central Michigan, a dual-threat who once ran for four touchdowns in a game against South Alabama.
The expectation was that this signing would correct their offensive issues.
But head coach K.C. Keeler didn’t put all of his eggs in the Bauer basket. He also scooped up a second-team All-American from the JUCO ranks.
After fall camp came to a close, it was that JUCO passer, Hunter Watson, who had won the starting job.
Last week, in his first FBS start, Watson threw for 229 yards, a pair of scores and added 57 yards on the ground.
The once-dreadful BearKats offense (20 ppg, 118th) suddenly had juice. His performance was enough to push Sam Houston past Rice as a double-digit underdog, securing a 34-14 road win.
Now Keeler and his new quarterback take their show on the road for the second straight week.
This time they head to Orlando to take on a UCF team that is still trying to find consistency through the air.
The Knights also went to the portal in the offseason, luring KJ Jefferson to the Bounce House.
But Jefferson looked rusty in Week 1, completing just 50% of his passes against New Hampshire.
Between his PFF grade and ESPN QBR, he was in the bottom five among his P4 peers.
The Knights will still be able to run the ball, a trademark of any Gus Malzahn team, but Sam Houston is no New Hampshire.
The Kats’ defense was flying to the football against Rice, finishing with eight TFLs. They gave up just 47 yards on the ground, and completely boxed up the Owl offense.
One additional wrinkle in this game: Sam Houston’s DC, Skylar Cassity, got his start on Malzahn’s staff at Auburn.
He’s seen the Malzahn game plan up close. It also doesn’t hurt that this qualifies as a look-ahead spot for UCF with its Big 12 opener on deck against TCU.
Since arriving at UCF, Malzahn has struggled against the closing number in situations just like this.
As a double-digit favorite at the Bounce House, when facing FBS opponents, he is just 3-6 against the spread.
Recommendation: Sam Houston +21.5 (-110, FanDuel)
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South Alabama at Ohio (6 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
Last week, the Jaguars ran 84 plays against North Texas in a game that featured 90 points and 1,100 total yards.
Their new starting quarterback, Gio Lopez, set the school record for total yardage in that game.
And the defense, now without the services of Kane Wommack (who left to become the Alabama DC), is in shambles.
This is a bottom-10 defense in the FBS with a non-existent pass rush (no sacks, one hurry on 44 dropbacks).
Ohio isn’t much better defensively, having been carved up by Syracuse and transfer QB Kyle McCord.
The Bobcats’ opener also breezed by the closing total and became a showcase for Northwestern transfer Anthony Tyus III (203 yards, two TDs).
No one is getting stops in this game.
