Expect tons of violence this weekend at UFC 315.
Heading into Montreal for a pay-per-view card for the first time since UFC 186 in 2015, the Canadian fans should be juiced.
Seven of the 12 fights are projected to end inside the distance, according to oddsmakers, but we’re still looking for value when betting on this card.
The bouts begin at 6 p.m. ET, with primetime treatment on ESPN.
Below, we break down the best bets for all UFC 315, beginning with the curtain jerker.
Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena
The main event is, unsurprisingly, the best fight on the card.
It features a really interesting stylistic matchup featuring a high-volume striker who mixes the arts with an incredible pace in welterweight champion Belah Muhammad against a largely unproven striker in Della Maddalena, who has serious power but tons of questions surrounding him.
Della Maddalena looked uneven last time out against Gilbert Burns, having likely lost the first two rounds of the fight before Della Maddalena pulled a rabbit out of his hat and won by TKO.
That kind of performance, which was an exhilarating win for him, probably won’t be enough to get crowned Saturday.
Burns is mostly past his prime, while Muhammad is firmly in the thick of his and on a wild run.
That hasn’t stopped money from coming in on Della Maddalena, who has fallen from +225 to +135 at the time of writing.
This is too big a line movement, and I feel as if fans are betting on Della Maddalena with their hearts and not their brains.
Muhammad is the sharp bet here. I don’t see Della Maddalena getting it done given the low-level competition that he has faced in his career.
Pick: Muhammad by decision (+110, BetMGM)
Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot
The women’s flyweight bout features longtime champion Shevchenko getting a chance to defend her title against rising challenger Manon Fiorot.
Fiorot is the favorite here to get her hand raised for the first time as Shevchenko gets a bit up there at age 37, having been in the UFC for nine years and dominating the ranks since she arrived.
Shevchenko is a +118 underdog, only the third time in her UFC career that she’s been priced here.
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Fiorot has run through the division, having dominated with volume striking, including five straight wins by decision.
My issue with backing Fiorot is twofold. First, she has only gone five rounds once. Second, Fiorot has not fought anyone near the level of offensive grappler that Shevchenko has shown to be in her career.
Fiorot is not some mega-prospect with insane tools, so while the betting markets crash in on the newcomer, I’ll go back to the old guard.
Pick: Shevchenko moneyline (+118, FanDuel)
Rest of the card
Jose Aldo vs. Aiemann Zahabi: Fight doesn’t go the distance (+270, Bet365).
Alexa Grasso vs. Natalia Silva: Grasso moneyline (+220, Caesars).
Benoit Saint Denis vs. Kyle Prepolec: Over 0.5 rounds (-280, book to be determined).
Mike Malott vs. Charles Radtke: Malott moneyline (-166, DraftKings).
Jessica Andrade vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius: Jasudavicius by KO/TKO (+600, Fanatics Sportsbook).
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Ion Cutelaba: Bukauskas by decision (+310, ESPN BET).
Navajo Stirling vs. Ivan Erslan: Stirling by decision (+270, BetMGM).
Marc-Andre Barriault vs. Bruno Silva: Silva moneyline (+124, FanDuel).
Daniel Santos vs. JeongYeong Lee: Santos moneyline (+110, Caesars Sportsbook).
Brad Katona vs. Bekzat Almakhan: Almakhan moneyline (-148, DraftKings).
