It’s been a long six weeks without being able to bet on cage fighting.
UFC 324 marks the return this weekend, but with a new look, as Saturday kicks off the beginning of a new era with Paramount+ taking over for ESPN.
It’ll have a different look and feel to the product this year, with new talent hosting the broadcast among many other expected changes.
UFC 324 is a loaded fight card to usher in the new era, with 13 fights on the docket and a new start time, beginning at 5 p.m. ET with the early prelims and the main card beginning at 9.
Celebrate the end of the pay-per-view era with a few bets with me, as I return to pick the entire card at UFC 324.
UFC 324 full card predictions
Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett
Pimblett likely is the largest lightweight in the UFC now that Joel Alvarez has gone up to welterweight. Pimblett is more than a weight bully, though, as he is a smart fighter who is strong at implementing a game plan as well as mixing in grappling and striking.
Where I worry for the Englishman is what happens if Gaethje is still there past the first round.
Pimblett certainly will look to grapple and get this fight to the ground — and we’ve seen that be an area of weakness for Gaethje against Charles Oliveira and Khabib Nurmagomedov.
Should Gaethje avoid the takedowns, he’s a devil to deal with on the feet as he’s been called the most violent man in the UFC.
Pimblett is a -220 favorite in this fight, as the betting market has long expected Gaethje to fall off a cliff after he was knocked out cold against Dustin Poirier and Max Holloway consecutively in 2023 and 2024.
Since then, Gaethje has beaten Dan Hooker and defeated Rafael Fiziev as an underdog.
The name of the game for him is to avoid being taken down. He’s struggled to do that against legitimate grapplers, and Pimblett is certainly that.
If Pimblett is forced into a striking battle with Gaethje that lasts into the later rounds, I expect he will lose.
Pimblett is a Scouser who says he doesn’t get knocked out, but leg kicks count just the same as any other strike. Either Gaethje chops Pimblett’s legs down and drags the Englishman into deep water for the mid-to-late-round finish, or Pimblett gets an early submission.
Regardless, I have this fight ending before the 2:30 mark of the fourth round.
Prediction: Under 3.5 rounds (-175, BetRivers).
Sean O’Malley vs. Song Yadong
O’Malley is one of the most famous fighters in the UFC and is just two fights removed from being the bantamweight champion.
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Two straight losses to dominant former champion Merab Dvalishvili and the “Sugar Show” is now relegated to the co-main event.
Still, I think that O’Malley is too big and powerful for this division.
It’s bizarre that he even makes this weight class at 5-foot-11, but he does, and he should be confident that he’s not going to be taken down by Song.
Song was TKO’d by Cory Sandhagen in 2023, and O’Malley profiles as the most powerful striker Song has faced in his career.
Prediction: O’Malley by KO/TKO (+350, FanDuel).
UFC 324 full card picks
Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett: Under 3.5 rounds (-175, BetRivers)
Sean O’Malley vs. Song Yadong: O’Malley by KO/TKO (+350, FanDuel)
Waldo Cortes Acosta vs. Derrick Lewis: Fight doesn’t go the distance (-280, Caesars Sportsbook)
Natalia Silva vs. Rose Namajunas: Fight doesn’t go the distance (+300, BetRivers)
Arnold Allen vs. Jean Silva: Allen ML (+240, BetRivers)
Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Deiveson Figueiredo: Fight goes the distance (-135, bet365)
Ateba Gautier vs. Andrey Pulyaev: Under 1.5 rounds (-215, DraftKings)
Nikita Krylov vs. Modestas Bukauskas: Fight goes the distance (+400, BetMGM)
Alex Perez vs. Charles Johnson: Johnson (-170, Caesars Sportsbook)
Michael Johnson vs. Alexander Hernandez: Hernandez by KO/TKO (+295, BetRivers)
Josh Hokit vs. Denzel Freeman: Hokit ML for parlays
Ricky Turcios vs. Cameron Smotherman: Turcios ML (+160, Caesars)
Adam Fugitt vs. Ty Miller: Pass
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
