UFC 322 was among the best cards we’ve had all year; the promotion follows it up with an absolute banger in Qatar this weekend.
The main and co-main events are loaded with some top contenders, including former champion Belal Muhammad.
It’s one of, if not the, best fight night event of the year, beginning extra early at 10 a.m. ET, on ESPN+.
We had a late replacement as Waldo Cortes-Acosta stepped in to fight Shamil Gaziev on short notice; there are no lines on the fight at the time of writing.
Seven of the 13 fights with odds available are expected to end inside the distance.
UFC Qatar predictions
Arman Tsarukyan vs. Dan Hooker
I don’t see Dan Hooker as a top contender in the UFC lightweight division, so the fact that this is being billed as a No. 1 contender for a chance to fight Ilia Topuria for the belt is a little confusing to me.
Regardless, Hooker matches up with Tsarukyan in this fight as a massive underdog and certainly not someone that I am looking to wager on.
Hooker (24-12, +410) is sure to run into issues in the grappling department, as he did against former lightweight champion and current welterweight champion Islam Makhachev.
In that fight, Makhachev easily took Hooker down and set up a kimura choke, where he quite literally looked ready to take Hooker’s shoulder off.
Tsarukyan (22-3) is actively looking for a title fight against Topuria, and given Makhachev’s dominance against Hooker, I suspect that the American Top Team product will look to win this fight inside the distance.
I’m targeting the favorite to win inside the distance at -136 as a boring decision win; no matter how dominant, it could be hazardous to his title hopes given his dicey relationship with the promotion to date.
THE PLAY: Tsarukyan wins inside the (-136, BetMGM)
Belal Muhammad vs. Ian Machado Garry
The UFC welterweight division is absolutely loaded and underwent a complete facelift this weekend at UFC 322 when the title changed hands and Michael Morales knocked out Sean Brady.
It’s now Ian Machado Garry’s turn to turn some heads in Qatar as he faces the former welterweight champion Belel Muhammad.
Garry (16-1) gave Shavkat Rakhmanov everything he could handle last year and needs a wild performance to get a chance at the welterweight division title.
Typically, Muhammad would be an interesting bet at underdog odds, but he’s 37 now. Garry is in his athletic prime and should be able to land a clean strike or two to win the fight by knockout.
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We have seen Garry show off some better-than-expected grappling, though, so there is some worry about submission on either side, considering Garry has had a tough time defending some lower-body takedown attempts.
This fight to end inside the distance comes in at +230 on Caesars Sportsbook, and I really like that spot in this fight.
There are many ways to a finish here and no shortage of motivation to get there. Target this fight to end earlier than oddsmakers project.
THE PLAY: Fight ends inside the distance (+230, Caesars Sportsbook)
UFC Qatar full fight card picks
Volkan Oezdemir vs. Alonzo Menifield: Fight goes the distance (+160, Caesars)
Jack Hermansson vs. Myktybek Orolbai: Hermansson by submission (+1500, BetRivers)
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Shamil Gaziev: Pass
Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Kyoji Horiguchi: Ulanbekov by decision (+120, bet365)
Bogdan Grad vs. Luke Riley: Riley by KO/TKO (+150, BetMGM)
Nicolas Dalby vs. Saygid Izagakhmaev: Pass
Alex Perez vs. Asu Almabayev: Almabayev ML (-168, FanDuel)
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev vs. Rafael Cerquiera: Yakhyaev by KO/TKO (-140, DraftKings)
Bekzat Almakhan vs. Aleksandre Topuria: Almakhan by KO/TKO (+230, Fanatics Sportsbook)
Ismail Naurdiev vs. Ryan Loder: Naurdiev ML (-135, Caesars)
Nurullo Aliev vs. Shem Rock: Fight goes to decision (-150, Fanatics)
Marek Bujlo vs. Denzel Freeman: Pass
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
