The NFL Week 11 slate has big-time matchups and plenty of player prop betting value.
In this article, I’ll break down my favorite picks on the board from the Sunday slate.
I went 1-2 on my picks in this column last week, marking my first losing week of the season. I’m now 21-7 for the season on these picks and 83-62 on player props overall for 24.39 units of profit.
Josh Jacobs Over 70.5 Rushing Yards (-110, bet365)
The Packers have operated an incredibly run-heavy offense this season, feeding Josh Jacobs on early downs. They lead the NFL in early-down rush play rate, and I expect that to continue against this run funnel Bears defense.
Chicago ranks sixtth against the pass by DVOA but just 30th against the run, per @FTNBetting. As a result, opponents have the ninth-lowest pass play rate over expectation in the league this year.
In other words, Bears opponents have skewed very run-heavy.
The Bears have allowed the fifth-highest explosive rush rate in the NFL this year and the most adjusted yards before contact per attempt, per @FantasyPtsData.
The Packers should generate plenty of rushing lanes for Jacobs, ranking seventh in adjusted yards before contact per attempt.
Jacobs has been an excellent running back this season, ranking fourth with 20 runs of 10+ yards and fifth with 3.73 yards after contact per attempt.
This looks like a smash spot for him, with the Packers operating as road favorites.
Matthew Stafford Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+116, FanDuel)
The Rams’ red-zone woes have been well-documented, and they were on full display Monday night as the team had to settle for three field goals on trips inside the Miami 20-yard line.
Last year, the Rams ranked eighth in the NFL with a 60.3% touchdown rate in the red zone. That has dropped to 46.9% (30th) this year.
Positive regression should be coming soon with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp healthy and the offensive line’s health improving with four of five Week 1 starters back in the lineup.
The Patriots rank just 30th in pass defense DVOA and 28th in EPA, so this is an exploitable matchup for Stafford.
Stafford has 2+ passing touchdowns in nine of 16 games with Kupp and Nacua healthy dating back to last year, which is a 56% hit rate.
At +116 odds, we’re working with a 46.3% implied probability, so I see significant value before even factoring in the juicy matchup against a vulnerable New England defense.
George Pickens Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-110, bet365)
The Ravens have one of the biggest pass-funnel defenses in the league this year, ranking fourth in run-defense DVOA and 25th in pass-defense DVOA.
Opponents have responded with the highest pass rate over expectation in the NFL this year, and while the Steelers are 31st in that metric, we’ll likely see their passing volume tick up this week.
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Even in the confines of a run-heavy offense, George Pickens has cleared this receiving line in all three of Russell Wilson’s starts this season, averaging 92 yards per game.
He’s been one of the most efficient wide receivers in the NFL this season, ranking second among 38 qualified receivers with 2.59 yards per route run, behind only Justin Jefferson.
Expect Wilson and Pickens to connect on a couple of moonballs this week — the Ravens rank 29th in deep-ball pass defense DVOA, and Pickens leads the NFL with 11 receptions on 20+ yard throws, including five in Wilson’s three starts.
Bo Nix Under 0.5 Interceptions (-115, DraftKings)
I have to credit Action Network analyst Nick Giffen for this pick, who has been playing interception Unders against the Falcons for weeks now.
I love this spot for Bo Nix to avoid a mistake, as he’s been one of the least mistake-prone quarterbacks in the league despite being a rookie.
According to PFF, Nix has just one turnover-worthy play over his last seven games. Since Week 2, he has just a 1% turnover-worthy play, tied for the lowest in the NFL.
He has just two interceptions over his last eight games.
When Nix is kept clean this season, he has just a 1.1% turnover-worthy play rate, and he won’t face much pressure here. The Falcons rank 29th in pressure rate, while the Broncos rank first in pass-block win rate.
(Keep in mind that lines move throughout the week, sometimes drastically, so if you need help on whether or not numbers are still playable, hit me up on X at @wayne_bets)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.
