The discussion has spilled over into its third decade, concerning when the breakthrough finally will come.
But this year suddenly just might be the best chance for it to happen.
With the past two U.S. Open winners — Carlos Alcaraz and 24-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic — eliminated in recent days, four American men will be among the final 16 when the fourth round of the U.S. Open begins on Sunday.
Frances Tiafoe, Taylor Fritz, Brandon Nakashima and Tommy Paul all are striving to become the first US-born male to win any Grand Slam tournament since Andy Roddick hoisted the championship trophy at Flushing Meadows in 2003.
The first three of that group — all but Paul — are on the same side of the bracket, perhaps providing one of them a better path for a possible end to the drought.
“Look, Alcaraz is out, I’m out, you know, some big upsets. So the draw is opening up,” Djokovic said after falling late Friday night to Alexei Popyrin. “Obviously [top-seeded Jannik] Sinner is the main favorite, but then, Tiafoe is there, as well, as the American favorite. And Fritz. [Alexander] Zverev, you have great guys playing well, and [Andrey] Rublev and [Grigor] Dimitrov in this part of the draw.
“But anybody can take it. It’s going to be interesting to see who takes the title in the end.”
And the long-waiting Americans and their fans certainly should be thinking “why not us?”
Tiafoe, the 20th seed, will avoid Djokovic in the fourth round and instead will face the 28th-ranked Popyrin on Sunday for a chance to reach at least the quarterfinals in New York for the third straight year.
“Look, the margins are so tight. The depth in the game is incredible right now,” Tiafoe said after Friday’s third-round win over another rising American, Ben Shelton, a 2023 Open semifinalist. “So many guys playing really well. If you’re not sharp you can lose.
“Guys are good. No one is light years better than anybody else, even Carlos, Sinner, these guys that are winning, [fifth-seeded Daniil] Medvedev. They win so much. If you’re not sharp and bringing your ability that we all know you can, you’re probably going to lose.”
The 26-year-old Tiafoe fell to Shelton in 2023 in the quarterfinals after reaching the semis the previous year.
Fritz, the highest-seeded American male at No. 12, is the first yank to reach at least the fourth round in each of the four majors in the same year since Andre Agassi did it in 2003.
He will face No. 8 Casper Ruud in Sunday’s fourth round, while Nakashima will be up against the fourth-seeded Zverev, a French Open finalist earlier this year.
“It’s an unbelievable experience here. To make the fourth round, as an American, it’s just a very exciting time for me,” said the 23-year-old Nakashima. “To play in front of these crowds, get that home support, it’s just super special. I’ll just kind of treasure these moments as I get through them.
“It’s always great to see the other Americans doing well. I think they have set the bar pretty high for American tennis … and it’s definitely an exciting time.”
Despite Friday’s exit, the 21-year-old Shelton (No. 13 in the world) believes “it’s really cool to see where American tennis is going.
Five players are ranked in the top-20, also including No. 17 Sebastian Korda, who was knocked out in the second round.
“It’s not just me and ’Foe [Tiafoe], there’s four or five other guys in the mix,” Shelton said after Friday’s loss. “We all are going to have our moments to shine.”
Paul, the 14th seed, completed the quartet of advancing Americans with a late-afternoon win in four sets over Canadian qualifier Gabriel Diallo.
He will face top-seeded Jannik Sinner — a straight-sets winner over Christopher O’Connell of Australia — on Monday for a trip to the quarterfinals
“I think that’s amazing. I love having all the other Americans going deep in tournaments, kind of rolling off of each other,” Paul said. “I don’t know that watching one American win helps me win, but I mean, I love seeing it. I think we have a really good group right now.”
