Bombshell shift in race to replace Nancy Pelosi as new odds drop on Election Day

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The race to replace Nancy Pelosi in Congress is drawing fresh attention as prediction-market odds for California state Sen. Scott Wiener surged Tuesday, while the former House speaker’s handpicked successor, San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan, plummeted.

Wiener’s odds on Kalshi jumped to 83% on Election Day, according to the prediction market’s tracking of the California 11th Congressional District race.

The shift comes despite Pelosi throwing her support behind Chan, who is seeking to succeed the longtime congresswoman in the San Francisco-based seat.

A separate prediction market, Polymarket, also showed a wide gap between the candidates, listing Wiener at 83% and Chan at 19%.

Nancy Pelosi’s endorsement isn’t translating into an easy handoff of her longtime San Francisco congressional seat, with prediction-market odds swinging sharply toward state Sen. Scott Wiener in the race against her chosen successor.

Wiener’s chances of winning California’s 11th Congressional District jumped from 82% to 94% on Kalshi between noon and 6:30 p.m. Tuesday, according to the prediction market.

The market movement comes despite Pelosi throwing her considerable political weight behind Chan, who has struggled to gain ground against Wiener in recent polling.

A University of Southern California poll released Oct. 22 found Wiener leading Chan 47% to 41%, with 9% of likely voters undecided. The survey of 454 likely voters had a margin of error of 4.6 percentage points, putting the candidates’ support within the margin of error.

Pelosi herself remains popular in the district, with 55% of voters approving of her performance, according to the USC survey. But that goodwill has not necessarily translated into support for her preferred successor.

The contest marks San Francisco’s first major battle over Pelosi’s House seat since she first won it in 1987.

The two Democratic candidates largely agree on national issues, including their opposition to President Donald Trump and support for immigrant and LGBTQ rights. But they represent different factions of the city’s Democratic Party.

Wiener, a longtime state lawmaker, is generally viewed as a more establishment Democrat, while Chan comes from San Francisco’s progressive wing and has cultivated support from labor unions and left-wing activists.

Pelosi has been deeply involved in the succession fight, endorsing Chan ahead of the primary and helping her secure a spot in the general election.

But the former speaker and Wiener have reportedly had a strained relationship ever since the state senator made clear he was interested in succeeding her, even before Pelosi announced her retirement.

Her decision to back Chan was widely viewed as a rebuke of Wiener, setting up an unusually personal contest over who gets to inherit one of San Francisco’s most powerful political seats.

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