Just hours before the results of Tuesday’s primary for the California gubernatorial race start rolling in, one candidate is seeing his odds to win skyrocket dramatically.
Democratic front-runner Xavier Becerra had a whopping 73% chance of winning the race as of about 1:30 p.m. on Tuesday, according to betting platform Polymarket.
Since May 4, the former head of the US Department of Health and Human Services under President Joe Biden has seen his odds steadily climb upward as he separates himself from the rest of the crowded Democratic field.
It marks an astounding turnaround for Becerra, who’s polling numbers at the beginning of the election cycle sat in the single digits.
After ex-Congressman Eric Swalwell — who led the Democratic field only a few months ago — suspended his bid due to allegations of inappropriate sexual behavior, it appeared much of his base shifted to Becerra.
BREAKING: The odds of a Tom Steyer (D) vs. Xavier Becerra (D) matchup have doubled to 28% in the past week
A Xavier Becerra (D) vs. Steve Hilton (R) matchup is still the most likely with a 65% chance pic.twitter.com/iQiy0U9nvm
— Kalshi Politics (@KalshiPolitics) June 2, 2026
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Many pundits had expected a portion of Swalwell’s base to go to progressive billionaire Tom Steyer, but it hasn’t proven to be enough so far.
Steyer, who has been polling just behind Becerra, has gone on the attack against the front-runner more frequently in recent weeks.
Both Becerra and Steyer traded legal threats over an ad that portrayed Becerra’s connection to a corruption scheme. Becerra was not named in the related indictment.
Despite the millions Steyer has spent on his campaign, he has seen his odds diverge from Becerra’s since May 4, according to Polymarket. He went from having a 39% chance of winning down to just a 15% chance.
“When you’ve got millions of dollars as a billionaire, you can put up pretty much any commercial you want,” Becerra said of Steyer on Monday. “We’re not gonna rely on that. We’re gonna rely on our momentum.”
Here is the latest on the 2026 California governors race
- Humiliation for California governor candidate Xavier Becerra as photo shows empty West Hollywood bar
- Tom Steyer can spend all he wants, but he can’t change this
- Bizarre topic not fought over since the Great Depression becomes toxic center of California governor’s race: ‘Shows strength’
- How Silicon Valley’s dream California governor candidate dramatically backfired
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