The wave of Islamo-leftist unrest in France has apparently redounded to the benefit of National Rally leader Marine Le Pen, who is the only presidential candidate to see their poll numbers climb after the outburst of violence last weekend.
The first election survey conducted by the Institut français d’opinion publique (Ifop) following the nationwide riots on Saturday and Sunday, which saw over 2,400 people arrested, more than a thousand police and firefighters injured, thousands of stores looted, and government buildings come under arson attacks, has seen more voters express support for mass migration critic Marine Le Pen.
The four-time presidential candidate and current frontrunner in the race to replace Emmanuel Macron is said to have gained between one and two points, depending on the candidate matchups, according to IFOP, which placed her at 34 to 38 per cent in the first round of voting.
Le Figaro reported that this is “unprecedented” for Le Pen and would put her on pace to surpass the previous first-round high set in 1988 by then-incumbent President François Mitterrand when he won 34 per cent of the vote.
Meanwhile, Le Pen, who has promised a crackdown on mass migration and vowed to deliver law and order, continues to distance herself from the potential second-round matchups that will occur if no candidate receives majority support in the first round.
The Ifop survey found that the National Rally chief’s lead increased by four points over Le Havre Mayor Édouard Philippe (56-44), four points over former Prime Minsiter Gabriel Attal (58-42), five points over former President François Hollande (59-41), two points over MEP Raphaël Glucksman (57-43), and up one point over La France Insoumise (LFI) leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon (68-32).
By comparison, Madame Le Pen won only 41.5 per cent of the vote in the second round in 2022 and 33.9 per cent in 2017. However, the Neo-liberal centrist bloc appears to be collapsing, with neither Philippe nor Attal having the personal charisma of President Macron, whose “impotence” in the face of the growing leftist-migrant violent unrest has further eroded the credibility of the establishment, which is counted on to deliver order above all.
At the same time as they give ground to Le Pen, the collapsing centre also appears to be elevating more left-wing candidates, including liberal media darling Raphaël Glucksman, who has jumped multiple points since winning the Socialist Party earlier this month and is now even with the likes of Philippe, who was tipped as an initial frontrunner to challenge Le Pen.
Glucksman, who has tried to use U.S. President Donald Trump as his political foil, will seek to position himself to the left of Macron while still convincing centrist voters and the political establishment that he is the only option to take down the radicals on the right and left.
However, the far-left does not appear intent on going down without a fight… literally. Despite being personally blamed by the government for fomenting some of the worst riots in recent memory, leftist LFI leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon has maintained his position at the top of the field of Le Pen challengers.
According to Ifop, Mélenchon is currently standing at between 15 and 20 per cent. While this is lower than the 21.95 per cent he won in 2022, it is presently enough to put him in second place, alone or tied, in all matchups, meaning the far-left leader is on pace to reach the second round.
However, Mélenchon also appears to have the worst chance of any candidate in a potential second-round matchup against Le Pen. This situation may incentivise some of the leading candidates to drop out before the first round of voting, creating a scenario in which the centre-left could feasibly coalesce around a single candidate to take down the far-left leader.
With his prospects of actually becoming the next president being limited, it begs the question why Mélenchon and his acolytes have been so intent on backing the riots. Some have suggested he merely wants to plunge the election into chaos, while others have surmised the riots may signal what’s to come if the country votes for Le Pen as president.
A Le Pen victory would not only shift France’s future, but could also tip the balance of power in Europe to the right, particularly at the EU Council level, if the ascendant right-wing coalition also wins in Spain next year and Giorgia Meloni retains her position in Rome. This could lay the groundwork for fundamentally changing the European Union’s stance on key issues like immigration and halting the continent’s rapid demographic transformation. Given the existential threat this would pose to leftist political parties, the willingness of the left — and their Islamic fellow travellers — to set France on fire is perhaps unsurprising.
