Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) is edging out her Democrat competitor, current state Rep. Josh Turek (D), in Iowa’s Senate race, a Quantus Insights Iowa poll revealed.
The pollster described the race as “closely divided” despite Hinson’s slight lead. She garners 47.1 percent support to Turek’s 45.8 percent support — a difference of just 1.3 percent. Libertarian Thomas Laehn sees 1.7 percent support, and undecided voters total 5.4 percent, which is more than enough to swing the race in either direction.
Further, the survey found that the narrow gap between Hinson and Turek persists when voters are presented with different scenarios:
Including the preferences of initially undecided voters who lean toward a candidate brings Hinson to 48.5 percent and Turek to 46.6 percent. In a separate question naming only the two major-party candidates, Hinson receives 48.9 percent to Turek’s 46.7 percent.
Quantus Insights also observes that Turek, who is backed by former President Barack Obama, is benefitting from independent voters who favor him by a 17-point margin. Another nine percent of independent voters remain undecided altogether.
Further, Hinson sees a 10-point advantage among men, while Turek enjoys a 12-point lead among women. The generational gaps are massive as well, as the youngest voters — those 18-29 — support support Turek with a 21-point advantage. The two are tied in the 30-44 age group, while Hinson leads among those 45-68 by eight points and by three points for ages 65+.
Quantus Insights concludes, “Turek’s strength among women and independents offsets Hinson’s rural advantage, leaving Iowa’s Senate race closely divided.”
The survey was taken September 28–29, 2026, among 714 likely voters. It has a +/- 3.8 percent margin of error.
This coincides with an Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media Iowa survey released in September, showing Hinson leading Turek by five percentage points.
As Breitbart News reported:
The September survey showed Hinson with 50 percent support among likely voters. Turek falls five points behind, garnering 45 percent support. However another five percent remain undecided. Emerson College noted that these results reflect a two-point increase in support for Hinson over the last month.
In August, 48 percent supported Hinson, with Turek remaining the same with 45 percent support. Six percent were undecided in the month of August. Ultimately, Hinson has expanded her lead over the Democrat from three points to five.
Hinson has contrasted herself with her Democrat competitor, particularly on the issue of the border. She actively lists securing the border as a top issue, calling to enforce the country’s immigration laws and deport “dangerous criminal illegal immigrants.” All the while, Turek has a record of supporting taxpayer-funded welfare for illegal immigrants despite trying to distance himself from his own record.
The current RealClearPolling average of polls shows Turek up by less than half of a percentage point.
