Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton by five percentage points in a survey of likely Texas voters released Tuesday, marking a shift from earlier polling that showed the attorney general narrowly ahead or tied in the U.S. Senate contest.
Texas Public Opinion Research found Talarico leading Paxton, 45 percent to 40 percent, “marking the Austin state representative’s largest lead in any public poll taken during the general election period,” the Texas Tribune reported.
The group surveyed 1,048 likely voters from July 15 through July 17. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
The survey found Talarico holding a commanding advantage among independents, with less than one-quarter supporting Paxton. Talarico also led among voters without college degrees, a group that has consistently favored Republicans in Texas and nationally.
Paxton received weaker support from Republican voters than he did in other recent surveys. Nearly one in five GOP respondents said they were undecided or planned to support Talarico.
The latest findings mark a shift from several June surveys. A YouGov poll of registered voters dated June 12 showed Paxton leading Talarico, 49 percent to 47 percent.
A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project survey also placed Paxton narrowly ahead, 43 percent to 42 percent. In April, the same pollster had shown Talarico leading then-Sen. John Cornyn by eight points. CNN senior political reporter Aaron Blake pointed to Paxton’s consolidation of Republican voters, with his support among GOP voters rising from 63 percent in April to 84 percent in June.
A New York Times/Siena poll found the candidates tied at 47 percent. The RealClearPolitics polling average cited June 30 showed Paxton leading Talarico, 45.2 percent to 44.6 percent.
