Spencer Pratt surge is much bigger than latest LA mayor poll shows, experts say

A new Los Angeles mayoral poll claiming there’s a dead heat between Mayor Karen Bass, Spencer Pratt and Nithya Raman is getting torched by longtime political insiders.

The UC Berkeley and Los Angeles Times poll released Thursday showed Bass leading with 26% support among likely voters, with Raman close behind at 25% and Pratt surging to 22%.

But several veteran Los Angeles political strategists told The California Post the poll misses large portions of the electorate and dramatically understates Pratt’s growing support.

Among them is veteran strategist Rick Taylor, who has spent roughly 50 years inside Los Angeles politics and is not affiliated with any mayoral campaign.

According to Taylor, internal political chatter and campaign tracking are showing Bass closer to 32%, Pratt at 30% and Raman lagging at 18%.

Taylor argues the problem starts with how many modern polls are conducted.

“These pollsters that believe in only doing digital, I do believe it is a weakness,” Taylor told The Post. “You miss people who are not inclined to spend 20 minutes on their phone or on a computer answering questions.”

Taylor called the Berkeley survey an “outlier” and warned that modern polling increasingly cuts corners by leaning too heavily on cheap digital outreach instead of costly live phone operations.

“That’s a poll that, I call it an outlier, because it’s just not dependable in my opinion,” Taylor said.

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Taylor argued the problem comes down to money.

He said a properly conducted Los Angeles poll can cost between $45,000 and $50,000 because campaigns and polling firms must repeatedly call voters, restart interviews when people hang up and pay trained operators to stay on the phones long enough to complete detailed surveys.

According to Taylor, those cheaper polling methods are missing the very voters driving Pratt’s surge.

“Every poll I’ve heard about in the last two and a half weeks has Spencer Pratt in second,” Taylor said.

Pratt, meanwhile, leaned into the skepticism surrounding the poll with a jab of his own on X.

“As a Trojan, i would never go off a UC Berkeley poll,” Pratt posted.

Taylor also warned weak turnout could completely scramble the race.

As a Trojan i would never go off a UC Berkeley poll.

FIGHT ON!

— Spencer Pratt (@spencerpratt) May 28, 2026

As of Thursday, turnout was hovering at just 7% citywide.

Taylor also noted the progressive voting bloc that powered Democratic Socialist victories across Los Angeles in recent years appears far less energized this cycle.

“I believe this is going to be the weakest showing from the Democratic Socialists that they’ve had in the last four years in LA,” Taylor said.

Instead, Taylor predicted moderate voters, particularly on the Westside, could play an outsized role in determining who survives the primary and advances to the runoff.

California primaries are set for Tuesday, June 2.