The Pentagon on Wednesday declared the “successful conclusion of the military mission that defeated ISIS in Iraq,” officially known as Operation Inherent Resolve. The last American and British forces have departed from Iraq over the past few weeks.
“This milestone reflects the success of a 12-year campaign that defeated ISIS as an organized military threat in Iraq and across the region. It also marks a transition from a wartime coalition mission to an Iraqi-led security effort supported by a more normal bilateral security relationship,” said Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell.
Parnell said, “Iraqi Security Forces, including the Peshmerga and other security forces in the Iraqi Kurdistan Region… [would] lead the continuing effort to secure Iraq and keep ISIS remnants suppressed,” with training and intelligence support from the U.S. military.
“The primary responsibility for addressing Iraq’s remaining security challenges, including ISIS remnants and Iran-aligned militias that undermine Iraqi sovereignty and regional stability, now rests with the Government of Iraq,” he said.
Operation Inherent Resolve began with U.S. airstrikes against Islamic State targets in August of 2014, as the jihadists were rapidly conquering territory in Iraq and Syria to build their “caliphate.” Most U.S. forces had been withdrawn from Iraq during the Obama administration, but troops from the United States and dozens of partner countries were deployed to “degrade and ultimately destroy” ISIS, as Obama administration officials were prone to say.
Former president Barack Obama envisioned this effort as a generational struggle that would require years or decades of chipping away at ISIS manpower, financing, and territory, but President Donald Trump swiftly put an end to the Islamic State after he took office in 2016, finishing off ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi with a special forces operation in October 2019.
“He died like a dog. He died like a coward. The world is now a much safer place,” Trump declared when announcing Baghdadi’s elimination.
Security experts warned that ISIS would survive the death of its founder and leader. The Islamic State “caliphate” covered about a third of Syria and almost 40 percent of Iraq at its height. The last of its strongholds was liberated in 2019, effectively ending the “caliphate,” but ISIS remains an insurgent threat in Iraq and Syria and it has franchises and allies across the Middle East and Africa.
The anti-ISIS effort in Iraq gave more money, influence, and weaponry to Shiite Muslim militia groups aligned with Iran. Baghdad deputized these groups as “Popular Mobilization Forces” (PMF) to fight ISIS. The militias were more loyal to Iran than the government of Iraq, and Iran put a great deal of money and effort into developing that relationship.
A key figure in that endeavor was Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force commander Gen. Qassem Soleimani, who was coordinating terrorist attacks on American personnel with an Iraqi militia leader when he was liquidated by an airstrike ordered by President Trump in January 2020.
Soleimani’s successors have continued to meet with Iraqi Shiite militias and their political wings and the militias have proven to be reliable Iranian proxies, rebranding themselves as the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq” or IRI.
The National on Tuesday quoted Iraqi officials and international analysts who viewed the official conclusion of Operation Inherent Resolve with apprehension because the hard-won defeat of ISIS was followed by the rising Iranian threat while the Iraqi government has proven reluctant to stand on its own feet against the Shiite militias.
“Everyone is anxious as to what will happen after the September 30 deadline. Iraq is currently in a fragile situation due to the war between the U.S. and Iran. No one is clear about the future posture of the government, militias, or foreign actors in Iraq,” an Iraqi official said.
“Relations with neighboring Arab countries are strained, co-operation is minimal, and distrust is high, exacerbated by accusations and complaints among regional states,” he added.
The Iraqi official noted that the militias have been resistant to disarming, although that resistance might ebb with the departure of American forces, whose presence was the putative reason why the militias needed their weapons.
The government in Baghdad is officially treating the end of Operation Inherent Resolve as a national holiday, celebrating the defeat of ISIS and the “restoration of full national sovereignty” as perhaps the beginning of a more stable and prosperous era.
Some Iraqi leaders, especially among the Sunni Muslim and Kurdish populations, are less happy to see the Americans go because the Shiite militias and Iranian influence are still active threats and ISIS could make a comeback. Some recalled that Iraq has been controlled by Shiite governments and they tend to deal harshly with Sunni Muslims, painting them as traitors and collaborators with terrorist groups like al-Qaeda and ISIS.
The Kurds, generally among the most pro-Western factions in Iraq, said they would respect the decisions of the Baghdad government, but they worried that Iraq still needed the Americans — especially with Iran actively hostile. Kurdistan, where the Erbil Airbase is located, has been attacked repeatedly by Iranian drones and missiles over the past six months.
“The political, security and military situation in Iraq has not yet reached a level of stability that would justify such a withdrawal. We are concerned that the departure of Coalition forces could create a significant security vacuum that terrorist organizations and other extremist groups may seek to exploit,” said the press secretary to Iraqi Kurdistan Prime Minister Masrour Barzani.
The Kurds are more concerned than most Iraqis that ISIS could become a major threat again, and that American withdrawal could be what they have been waiting for.
