WASHINGTON — The White House is bracing for President Trump to be snubbed once again when the Nobel Peace Prize is announced on Friday, but some experts see a path for him to eventually claim the prestigious honor down the road.
Several humanitarian organizations are favored to become this year’s Nobel laureate, mainly to combat what happened with last year’s winner. Then, Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado gave Trump her medal during a White House visit in January, saying he deserved it.
Still, a few names are getting the buzz, including Pope Leo IX, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Yulia Navalnaya, the widow of Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny. Even Melania Trump is being praised for her work reuniting 34 Ukrainian and Russian children with their families, although she’s considered a longshot at garnering the medal.
Trump has made it no secret he wants the prize for himself.
“I settled eight wars. Another one is coming. I got all the hostages back. I did things that nobody else has ever done. I’m not bragging. I’m just telling you the facts,” he told reporters in the Oval Office on Wednesday.
The president indicated, however, he didn’t expect to get the award this year.
“They have a reputation for maybe not giving it to people like me,” he said of the Nobel Committee, “but I, whether I get it or not, I have done far more, and I think it would be a great discredit to them. And I’m not saying that out of scorn.”
The Iran war, started by Trump in conjunction with Israel, is seen as a big strike against him.
But some believe Trump still has a chance at the award during his presidency, if he can do two things: end the Russian-Ukraine war and bring peace to the Middle East.
“Donald Trump can always turn this around,” Dr. Arta Moeini, director of research at the Institute for Peace & Diplomacy, told The Post. “He could forge a new Middle East, and he could forge it diplomatically and through peace rather than through bombs and war. If he can deliver on his America First promises, then he would be a very good contender for this in the coming years.”
But Moeini sees this year’s prize going to an organization.
“It’s most likely going to some sort of a peace group,” he said. “There’s so many wars going on. It would be kind of strange to give it to another kind of domestic freedom fighter type of person.”
The prize is decided by five individuals, nominated by the Norwegian parliament, who serve on the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
“The president deserves it. I don’t know if the committee will feel that way,” a senior administration official told The Post. “It’s pretty clear that you know they’re not supportive of the president, but he deserves it.”
“This isn’t about this isn’t about people not deserving it because there’s a lot of good candidates,” the official added, “but I think the president stands out the best because of everything that he’s done.”
Some 287 candidates were nominated this year, including 208 individuals and 79 organizations. The list is kept secret for 50 years, tucked inside a vault in the basement of the Norwegian Nobel Institute in Oslo. But some publicly reveal their nominations and several Republicans said they nominated the president.
Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.), who nominated the president for the prize, said he never heard from the Nobel committee confirming the nomination and added he would be disappointed, but not surprised, if Trump is not the winner.
“Even the Nobel Peace Prize has become politicized,” he said.
Still, he told The Post, the war with Iran will ultimately lead to peace in the Middle East, which should be a consideration for future prizes.
“We’re never going to have peace in the Middle East until Iran is under control,” Carter said. “Through the conflict in Iran and through addressing this situation in Iran, he’s trying to ultimately get to peace. You will never get to peace in the Middle East until you have the leading state sponsor of terrorism under control.”
Haakon Gjerloew, acting director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, wrote in the Guardian: “Trump will not win. A sitting president waging a war against Iran is an impossible candidate for a prize intended to advance peace.”
Gjerlow is a well-known expert on the prize and publishes a list of top contenders for the honor.
Among his picks this year are several humanitarian organizations, including Save the Children, Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, The Committee to Protect Journalists, The International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court, and The International Space Station.
Many experts see the Sudan group, which is made of all volunteers, and the Space Station as the favorites.
Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms was a response to the increased humanitarian needs, particularly after the Trump administration slashed USAID, Gjerlow noted. The group highlights “the critical importance of access to lifesaving aid in times of conflict, and the power of everyday citizens to serve humanity in difficult times.”
And the International Space Station, which is scheduled to be decommissioned in the early 2030s, is a great example of Europe, the United States and Russia working together, he said.
“Space is becoming increasingly crowded, commercialized, and potentially weaponized. A Nobel Peace Prize for the ISS partnership would celebrate what humanity can achieve when we work together,” Gjerlow wrote.
Other individuals named are seen as having a slimmer chance.
Carney was briefly the favorite on Kalshi, the online betting market. The Canadian prime minister made an international name for himself by standing up to Trump, but that may not be enough to get him a peace prize.
Of the individuals talked about, Pope Leo — the new American pontiff who took office last year — is seen as having the best chance.
“I actually see him as a dark horse,” Moeini said, noting that even though the pope is an individual, he is seen more as the representative of an organization, the Catholic Church. “He speaks for decency and is, in some ways, a critic of Donald Trump.”
