The Lions enter the NFL season with relatively high expectations.
After missing the playoffs last year, oddsmakers give the Lions the third-best odds to win the NFC, tied with the 49ers but behind the Rams and Seahawks.
To compete with their conference rivals, they’ll need to lean into what they’ve done best in recent years: scoring the football.
After one lackluster season, head coach Dan Campbell managed to turn the Lions into one of the best offensive units in football. Since 2022, they’ve ranked top-five in scoring in each season, with the No. 1 scoring offense in 2024 and the No. 4 unit last season.
Over that time, Amon-Ra St. Brown has been one of the most dominant receivers in the league. He leads all receivers in receptions and ranks third in receiving touchdowns (39) behind Ja’Marr Chase (41) and Davante Adams (44).
Naturally, all three players are at the top of the odds board with +700 odds to lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns this upcoming season, with 2025 receiving yards leader Jaxson Smith-Njigba also in the mix at +800 at BetMGM.
St. Brown is the only player among the three favorites who hasn’t led the NFL in receiving touchdowns. Adams has done it three times in his career, including last season, and Chase held the crown in 2024, but St. Brown has finished third twice and second last season.
He stands out among this crowded group as a strong candidate to break through this season. The Lions have been one of the best red zone teams in the league under Campbell, and they aren’t afraid to use their dynamic passing game to their advantage when they get inside the 20.
Betting on the NFL?
- Read our expert guide on how to bet on the NFL
- Check out the best NFL betting sites
- Get the BetMGM Bonus Code
St. Brown has been the biggest beneficiary of their offensive style in the red zone. Last season he saw 41.5 percent of the Lions’ targets in the red zone, which was the highest number in the league.
His 20 red zone catches were tied with Christian McCaffrey for the most in the NFL, and his 10 touchdowns were tied for second. St. Brown’s teammates combined for 29 red zone catches by comparison.
The other half of the equation for St. Brown’s touchdowns is Goff, who has been one of the league’s best passers since teaming up with Campbell on the Lions. His 130 passing touchdowns over the past four seasons are the most in the NFL, and I expect this team to keep throwing the ball at a high rate.
Even with dynamic players like receiver Jameson Williams and running back Jahmyr Gibbs, who can both be dangerous in the passing game, St. Brown’s numbers are consistently among the best in the league.
There are so many unknown variables that pop up during a football season, but the connection between St. Brown and Goff is about as solid as they come. Betting a season-long market in the summer can be tricky, but among the top options, I trust this offense the most.
I’ll bet on St. Brown to finally break through and lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns.
The Pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown NFL receiving TD leader (+700, BetMGM)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
