The Big Ten tournament tips this Tuesday as one of the most loaded conferences in the country will battle for an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.
Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska and Illinois have all secured byes through three rounds round and won’t see the floor until the quarterfinals Friday.
Wisconsin, UCLA, Purdue and Ohio State each have byes through two rounds.
Then, there are the teams that are either on the bubble or outside of the that range: Indiana and Iowa.
The Hoosiers are one of the first four out based on ESPN’s latest bracketology rankings and Iowa is outside of the top 76.
Both teams would need a deep run at least to convince the committee that they should go dancing, but winning the whole tournament would secure their spot.
Here’s a look at the tournament odds and a prediction on which team emerges victorious in the Big Ten tourney by the end of the week.
Big Ten conference tournament odds
| Team | odds |
|---|---|
| Michigan | -105 |
| Illinois | +480 |
| Purdue | +600 |
| Michigan State | +650 |
| Nebraska | 10/1 |
| Wisconsin | 30/1 |
| UCLA | 40/1 |
| Iowa | 60/1 |
| Ohio State | 80/1 |
| All other teams | 100/1 or longer |
Michigan finished the regular season 27-2 and 19-1 in conference and their two losses came by a total of eight points.
They may no longer be the No. 1 team in the nation, but they have a strong case for being the best team in college basketball no matter what metrics you use to judge them by.
They are 15-2 against teams currently ranked in the top 50 of ESPN’s Basketball Power Index, the best such record in the country. They had the second-best Net Rating in the country, according to KenPom’s rankings, and the fourth-best offense per Bart Torvik’s ranking system.
The fact that their resume is so strong makes their odds to win the Big Ten a bit curious.
The Wolverines are -105 to win the Big Ten, which feels off compared to other conference leaders. Duke is -330 to win the ACC and Florida is -180 to win the SEC.
All three conferences have depth — the SEC is expected to have 11 teams in the NCAA Tournament, with the Big Ten and ACC expected to send nine and eight teams respectively — but somehow Michigan’s dominance seems to be overlooked.
There are certainly contenders in the Big Ten that could push Michigan in a single-elimination format. Michigan State under head coach Tom Izzo seems to punch above its weight every year and tends to peak in March.
Illinois and Purdue have the No. 1 and No. 2 offense in the country based on Bart Torvik’s rankings and Nebraska ranks sixth in defense. Wisconsin is the only team in the Big Ten with a win over Michigan and the Badgers even pulled it off on the road.
Michigan has consistency on its side and a team that has few flaws in its game. It’s entirely possible that the Wolverines face team like Wisconsin or Illinois and lose the 3-point battle by a wide enough margin that the Big Ten crown slips through their fingers.
It’s more likely that they storm through a conference that seen the Wolverines win by double digit margins — 16 of their 19 conference wins were by 10 points or more.
Getting one of the best teams in the country at -105 odds to win its conference feels like great value and I’m inclined to take it.
The Pick: Michigan to win the Big Ten tournament (-105, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
