In the Stanley Cup Playoffs, results come down to who makes the most of their chances.
The Bruins’ 3-1 loss to the Sabres in Game 3 wasn’t indicative of the scoring opportunities they had. They threw away a pair of power plays in the third period while Viktor Arvidsson was stoned by Alex Lyon on a penalty shot right before the Sabres tied the game.
Boston is an ever-so-slight -115 favorite at bet365 Sportsbook for Sunday’s Game 4 matinee in Beantown.
Sabres vs. Bruins Game 4 odds, prediction
It has struck first in all three games of this series despite being down 2-1, but some situational mistakes with a young team have made the difference.
So far, their biggest weakness has been secondary scoring — the Bruins’ “Kid Line” of James Hagens, Fraser Minten and Marat Khusnutdinov is undergoing a playoff learning curve, with zero combined points.
But even though the Sabres are outshooting the Bruins 103-72, the game flow doesn’t represent the advantage many projected the Sabres to have. In fact, the Bruins lead in expected goals for (5.02 to 4.64) and have generated two more high-danger scoring chances in the series.
The biggest difference-maker on the ice is Bruins netminder Jeremy Swayman, who delivered several timely saves to keep the Bruins in Game 3. Although the offensive support hasn’t been there, Swayman has brought the momentum of a Vezina-worthy season into the playoffs with a .931 save percentage.
The Alaskan has stopped 10 of 11 high-danger shots and has projected a plus-1.6 Goals Saved Above Expected.
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Alex Lyon emerged with a stellar performance in Game 3 to rival Swayman, but with only one start under his belt and Swayman’s excellent home splits (.920 SV% and two shutouts), the B’s are primed to bounce back.
THE PLAY: Bruins (-115, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
