After TWO months, this much is clear: No one can be trusted.
Only three schools (Miami, UCLA, Utah) remain undefeated, the lowest number of teams without a loss at this point in a season since 1977. Those three teams have combined for only two wins over teams that are currently ranked.
Four teams ranked No. 1 or 2 have lost in the past three weeks — three coming against unranked teams — for the first time in nearly two decades. That followed a bloodbath in which five of the top seven teams lost on the same day for the first time in the 90-year history of the AP poll. Over the past three weeks, there have been 10 teams in the top 10 that have fallen, matching the most in such a span since 1936.
But one play is essentially all that stands between the sport having a familiar juggernaut hovering above all again.
If Gunner Stockton doesn’t run into his own teammate and fumble at midfield against Auburn, Georgia would likely still be unbeaten. If the fourth-year quarterback doesn’t throw two interceptions for the first time — giving a 20-point underdog a plus-three turnover margin — the Bulldogs aren’t in that position to begin with.
The sportsbooks recognize the bizarre set of circumstances, keeping Georgia (+450) the national title favorite. In addition to having the fifth-highest scoring offense and a defense ranked 13th in yards per play allowed (4.5), the back-to-back SEC champs still have a head coach (Kirby Smart) who is 71-10 since 2021 and has had two weeks to get ready to play Florida in a de facto home game in Atlanta.
Over the past 10 seasons, the Bulldogs (-11.5) have gone 22-2 in regular-season games when Smart has had more than one week to prepare. Don’t bank on another aberration from the nation’s best.
Notre Dame (-30.5) over NAVY
The triple-option has worked against the Irish in back-to-back years, but Navy has still lost the past three meetings by at least 37 points. The Midshipmen caught a bad break, hosting a national championship contender — coming off a bye — after its first loss of the season.
Wisconsin (+3.5) over IOWA
The Hawkeyes have the home-field edge and have dominated this matchup of mirror images in recent seasons, but the hook is extremely valuable in a battle of top 20 defenses.
Arizona (+3.5) over TEXAS TECH
The Red Raiders have relied on turnovers — topping the nation with two interceptions per game — to cover the scars of the nation’s fifth-worst pass defense. Enter senior Noah Fifita, who averages nearly 300 passing yards per game, ranks second in the nation in completion percentage (74.2) and has led the Wildcats to five straight wins.
Auburn (+13.5) over OLE MISS
Trinidad Chambliss might as well be a lock to bounce back in a must-win game, but the SEC’s worst rushing defense will struggle to contain dual-threat Byrum Brown. The Tigers quarterback has averaged over 75 yards rushing with five touchdowns in the past six games.
Arizona State (+16.5) over BYU
The Cougars’ upset against UCF will prevent them from looking ahead to next week’s Holy War, but BYU has won just three of its past 23 power conference games by more than two touchdowns and is under .500 in daytime games since 2019.
Minnesota (+20.5) over INDIANA
This line doesn’t make sense unless Fernando Mendoza is back. The Hoosiers are 1-6 against the spread as a favorite and averaging less than 14 points over their past three games, with Josh Hoover — who is set to face a top-25 pass defense — completing 50 percent of his attempts in that span.
Utah (-6.5) over CINCINNATI
The Bearcats aren’t built for back-to-back upsets of Big 12 favorites. Even without a Cincinnati letdown, its 129th-ranked defense won’t be able to slow Devon Dampier’s top 15 offense, which has led the undefeated Utes to a 6-1 record against the spread as a favorite.
WAKE FOREST (-12.5) over Virginia
The Demon Deacons return from a bye after winning their past three games by 112 total points, but their top 10 offense may not even be the greatest edge in this game. Jake Dickert’s defense, which averages 2.6 sacks per game, faces an offensive line that’s allowed the fourth-highest percentage of sacks (12.3) in the nation.
Nevada (+22.5) over UCLA
The unbeaten Bruins are unaccustomed to such success and susceptible to looking past a sub-.500 mid-major. The Wolf Pack are 3-1 against the spread as an underdog, and Cal Poly transfer Ty Dieffenbach — who has thrown for only two touchdowns in 10 quarters — isn’t likely to light up the nation’s fourth-ranked pass defense.
South Carolina (+4.5) over OKLAHOMA
The Sooners — coming off a win against Mississippi State — haven’t won consecutive games all season, due to an offense that ranks 116th in the nation in touchdowns per game, scoring nine in the past six games. In the past three weeks, LaNorris Sellers has been responsible for 10 touchdowns, leading the Gamecocks to wins over Florida and Tennessee.
Ohio State (-6.5) over USC
How many people wrote off the Buckeyes when injuries to Braxton Miller and J.T. Barrett forced Urban Meyer to give a third-string quarterback his first three starts in the Big Ten title game, against No. 1 Alabama and against Heisman winner Marcus Mariota in the national championship? Jeremiah Smith and a top-five defense are enough to keep Ohio State a title contender no matter who is under center.
Mississippi State (+20.5) over TEXAS
A Longhorns offense that ranks 78th in yards per play (5.3) and 108th in giveaways per game (1.6) has no business laying three touchdowns. Texas is 2-5 against the spread as a favorite and has seen every game against a power conference team come down to the final possession.
Miami (-14) over NORTH CAROLINA
Jordon Hudson’s 74-year-old boyfriend has avoided embarrassing himself for the first two months of Year 2, but the check is due for his 75th-ranked pass defense against the nation’s highest-scoring offense.
ARKANSAS (+9.5) over Missouri
The Hogs may be starting to buy into first-year head coach Ryan Silverfield, following a win at Vanderbilt and a last-minute loss to Tennessee. The Tigers — who most recently scored three points against Ole Miss’ 65th-ranked defense — have won just three of their past 10 SEC road games under Eli Drinkwitz.
Best bets: Minnesota, Utah, South Carolina
This season: 67-52-1 (16-8 best bets)
