England and Croatia have a habit of finding one another in major international soccer tournaments.
Croatia defeated England in the semifinals of the 2018 World Cup in Russia, and then they met again in the group stage at Euro 2020.
Plenty of faces have changed in both camps since their last competitive meeting, but the strengths and weaknesses in each camp haven’t shifted all that much.
England is one of the favorites to win the World Cup, so it’s no surprise to see them at -140 odds on the three-way moneyline for Wednesday’s headliner in Dallas.
England vs. Croatia odds, prediction
Unbelievably, Luka Modric is still at it for Croatia.
The winner of the Golden Ball at the 2018 World Cup, Modric is just three months away from his 41st birthday and is still an effective string-puller in the middle of the pitch.
Modric, along with old mates Ivan Perisic, 37, and Andrej Kramaric, 34, have turned Croatia into one of the powers on the international scene over the last decade.
And while the Croatians may not have the abundance of technically gifted players that the likes of Spain, England, or France have, they do play with an unmistakable identity under Zlatko Dalic, who has been in charge of Vatreni since 2017.
Dalic led Croatia to the World Cup Final in 2018 and the semifinals in 2022 by making them tough to beat.
Croatia has plenty of terrific playmakers, but they’re not a naive group. When the situation calls for it, the Croats will get cozy in a 4-4-2 and defend until they get an opportunity to counter.
That style has typically given England fits, as the Three Lions have so many splendid ball-movers.
They want to put the ball on the carpet and keep things moving, hoping to unlock some space for Harry Kane to do what he does best.
That will be easier said than done against this dogged Croatian side, however.
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Not only do the Croats have a couple of terrific center-backs with Josko Gvardiol and 19-year-old Luka Vuskovic, but they could give England some issues in the middle of the park.
Declan Rice has a legitimate claim to be the best midfielder in the world right now, but he’ll be dealing with a couple of experienced hounds in Modric and Mateo Kovacic.
As the game wears on, I do expect England’s possession-heavy approach to take its toll on Croatia. Vatreni just don’t have the depth or speed to cope with the Three Lions over 90 minutes, so the cracks will eventually show. It just may take some time to get to that point.
England should have enough to nick a win, but the margins will be pretty slim. Expect Croatia to make things quite uncomfortable for Thomas Tuchel in his first World Cup match in charge of the Three Lions.
Same-game parlay: England win & Under 2.5 goals (+225, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
