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PLAYBOOK: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (5-4) AT LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (4-5), 1:05 P.M. SUNDAY
Anybody worried about Fernando Mendoza drawing the NFL’s best defense in his first start ought to consider it from the rookie’s perspective. He spent nine games standing next to Klint Kubiak, listening to the playcall and watching Kirk Cousins get to make the throw. You think he’d like another week of that because Mike Macdonald happens to be coming to town?
Give him Seattle. The harder the better.
The Seahawks come to Allegiant Stadium on Sunday giving up a league-low 244.2 yards per game. They just held Arizona to three points. If Mendoza gets greedy with a throw over the middle, there’s a decent chance somebody in a visiting jersey will be there to explain the error of his ways.
And when the same look comes around in the third quarter? That’s the snap worth watching.
Say Mendoza sees Brock Bowers breaking open behind a linebacker in the first quarter. By the time he lets it go, the safety has closed on Bowers and the ball hits the turf. Two quarters later, Seattle gives him that look again. Does he let the ball go a beat earlier? Does he see the safety cheating down and take a shot behind him? Kubiak can spend a month walking him through both answers in Henderson, Nev. One Sunday of having to make that decision with the score tied will do wonders for his attention to detail come Wednesday.
Besides, Mendoza had a little something to do with the timing here. The Raiders could have kept Cousins through the season and let the kid keep running the scout team. What they saw in practice gave them the confidence to listen when Minnesota called. At 4-5, with a playoff spot still within reach, that’s a fairly expensive way to give somebody a courtesy start.
There’s some responsibility on Kubiak here, too. Seattle knows the Raiders would love to get Mendoza an easy completion on first down. So what happens if a safety drives on Bowers and Tre Tucker has a step on his man down the sideline? Give the kid permission to throw it. Imagine spending all week telling Mendoza to trust his eyes, then handing him a game plan that asks him to ignore what he sees.
Mendoza won a Heisman Trophy and a national championship at Indiana. Somewhere along the way, he figured out how to handle a pretty important Sunday’s worth of expectations on a Saturday. What he has yet to experience is an NFL defensive coordinator spending an entire week dreaming up ways to make him wrong. Macdonald should come up with a few.
Good. Let Mendoza work through one. Then give him the ball back. The most encouraging thing the Raiders could see Sunday is their rookie waving Bowers back to the huddle after a missed connection, calling the same play a quarter later and hitting him in stride.
Marquee matchups
Raiders coach Klint Kubiak vs. Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald
Imagine how many times these two stood on a practice field in Seattle last season, saw what the other guy had called and filed away an idea for tomorrow. Now tomorrow is here. Kubiak, who called the offense on Macdonald’s Super Bowl team, gets to use a few of those ideas against his old boss. The catch is that he has to explain them to a quarterback making his first NFL start. Watch what Kubiak does the second time the Raiders line up in a formation. If he can get Macdonald anticipating a play they ran together in Seattle, that might be the time to turn Mendoza loose on the counterpunch.
Seahawks safety Nick Emmanwori vs. Raiders tight end Brock Bowers
An early tell for Mendoza will come when Bowers breaks the huddle and splits out wide. Who follows him? Emmanwori gives Seattle the option of sending a safety out there who can contest the catch and still get Bowers on the ground if the ball arrives. The Raiders can make that tougher by putting Bowers in motion and forcing Emmanwori to work through traffic before he gets a hand on him. Even a couple of free releases could settle Mendoza down. There are worse ways for a rookie to spend his first quarter than flipping a 5-yard pass to Bowers and letting the tight end negotiate the next 15.
The pick
Raiders 28, Seahawks 24. The Raiders gave the ball away five times against the 49ers. A reversal happens Sunday, with Maxx Crosby forcing the turnover that gives Mendoza a short field and Kubiak finding one good shot to Tucker off play-action. That gets the Raiders to the fourth quarter with a chance. Give me Bowers on the deciding drive. Kubiak spent a season in Seattle watching opponents try to solve Macdonald’s defense. I think he saved something for just this occasion.
Key stat: 244.2
Seattle’s defense is giving up 244.2 yards per game, the lowest in the NFL. Welcome to your first start, Fernando Mendoza.
