The WNBA takes center stage Monday night with a marquee matchup between the Liberty and Wings down in Texas.
The Wings (16-8) have won six in a row entering Monday and can extend their longest win streak of the season to seven games with a win at home. The Liberty (13-11) have dropped four straight games and look to pick up a win to snap their longest losing streak of the season.
Oddsmakers expect a tight contest between these two contenders, with the Liberty listed as spread favorites at -5.5, while the Over/Under sits at 175.5 total points.
Liberty vs. Wings prediction, best bet
Before the Wings tipped off the season, the loudest conversations around them focused on off-court rumors, but their on-court expectations were modest. They’ve blown through those expectations so far.
Entering the season, the Wings’ projected win total was 21, and they’re on pace for 29 wins. The Wings would have the best record in the Eastern Conference, but in a crowded West, they’re fourth behind the Lynx, Aces and Valkyries.
They’ve been one of the best offensive teams in the league, posting a 111.5 offensive rating this season, which ranks fourth. Much of that success is tied to the play of Paige Bueckers, who has been one of the best guards in the league.
She’s one of three players this season averaging 20 points on 50 percent shooting from the floor, along with A’ja Wilson and Kelsey Plum.
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She’ll be at the top of the scouting report for a Liberty team that needs to break out of its slump and fast.
The Liberty profile as a good defensive team — fifth in defensive rating this season, allowing 105.1 points per 100 possessions — but the Wings blew them out both times these two teams met.
In the first meeting, the Wings hit a season-high 15 3-pointers against the Liberty to beat them 91-76. When they met for the second time last week, neither team could hit a 3, but the Wings took advantage of the Liberty’s mistakes and scored 18 points off their 14 turnovers in an 88-77 win.
I think we’ll see better offensive output from the Liberty in this game, especially since it’s on the road. When the Liberty are on the road, they have the second-best offense in the W, scoring 112.7 points per 100 compared to 106 at home.
It’s pretty strange for a team to have splits that dramatic on the road vs. at home, but the betting trends bear it out as well. The Over is 10-2 when the Liberty play on the road, and it’s 7-3 in their past 10.
The Liberty also found small wins in their last game against the Wings despite the final score: they got to the line 22 times against a team that commits the third-fewest fouls.
The Liberty might not be able to pull off a win in Dallas, but I do think they’ll put up a much better offensive effort against a Wings team that’s had their number. I like the Over at 175.5.
The Pick: Over 175.5 (-110, FanDuel)
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Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
