Matthew Stafford absence opens door for Ty Simpson

Given that Matthew Stafford’s last preseason snap predates his arrival in Los Angeles by two years, the chances of seeing him take the field against the Chiefs on Saturday are less than zero.

How much of a nonstarter is the conversation? Rams coach Sean McVay is more likely to field questions about Myles Garrett returning kickoffs this year than Stafford’s availability in Saturday’s preseason opener.

The reigning NFL MVP is far too important to the Rams’ Super Bowl hopes to subject him to even one unnecessary hit over the next three weeks. And McVay is far too smart to tempt fate.

So Stafford will remain in his customary preseason bubble wrap, to be opened only for practices before the real thing begins against the 49ers in Melbourne, Australia, on September 10.

Rams fans hoping to see Stafford lead the first-team offense will have to wait.

They shouldn’t be disappointed.

His absence creates something potentially far more valuable: an extended look at the quarterback the Rams are banking on to eventually replace him.

Ty Simpson, the 13th overall pick in this year’s draft, figures to get the bulk of the work Saturday and perhaps throughout the preseason. Stetson Bennett will get his opportunities, too, whether against Kansas City or next Saturday against the Saints.

And Bennett, with three years in McVay’s system, remains the logical choice to begin the season as Stafford’s primary backup.

But let’s not confuse the short-term depth chart with the long-term plan.

Simpson is the future.

That was the entire point of spending the 13th pick on him. The Rams weren’t drafting a backup quarterback that high. They were buying themselves a succession plan. And, ideally, enough time to properly develop Simpson before asking him to execute it.

In fact, the longer they can delay that day, the better.

The Rams want to squeeze every last healthy, productive season they can out of Stafford. If Simpson spends one year waiting, great. If it’s two, even better. Every year Stafford remains Stafford is another year the Rams can legitimately chase a Super Bowl while Simpson develops without the burden of having to carry a franchise before he’s ready.

But eventually, the keys will be his.

And when that day comes, Simpson’s readiness could determine whether the Rams’ championship window seamlessly extends into another era or slams shut with Stafford’s retirement.

That’s what makes Saturdays like this so valuable.

Once the regular season begins, Simpson’s world changes dramatically. Stafford will command virtually every meaningful first-team practice rep. On Sundays, Simpson’s job will mostly consist of watching, listening and learning. The opportunities to actually run an NFL offense against an opponent will all but disappear.

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The preseason is different.

This is Simpson’s laboratory, classroom and proving ground rolled into one. A rare chance to take everything he has absorbed since arriving in Los Angeles and put it on film against players wearing a different uniform.

Every snap matters. Every protection check. Every read. Every throw made under pressure. Every mistake and, just as importantly, how he responds to it.

Because Saturday isn’t really about whether Simpson can beat the Chiefs in a preseason game.

It’s about collecting evidence.

Evidence of how far he has come. Evidence of how far he still has to go. And evidence that when Stafford eventually walks away, and the Rams hand their offense to Simpson, the Super Bowl train doesn’t have to come screeching to a halt.

It can simply keep rolling.

One word of caution: McVay’s preseason offenses are typically a cross between vanilla ice cream and unseasoned oatmeal. And you’re likely to get more creative playcalling watching two kids draw plays in the dirt at recess.

Couple that with the fact that most of the Rams playing meaningful snaps Saturday will be rookies, bottom-of-the-roster hopefuls or future practice-squad players, and it’s important to evaluate Simpson through the proper lens.

He won’t be operating McVay’s real offense, and he certainly won’t be surrounded by the Rams’ real offensive personnel. So whether Simpson lights it up or struggles, resist the temptation to make sweeping conclusions.

Saturday isn’t about proving he’s ready to replace Stafford. It’s about providing another glimpse of whether he’s moving in that direction.