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Turns out betting on the worst team in FBS was a bad idea. Sacramento State couldn’t find a way to cover 14.5 points against Ball State, snapping our winning streak at two and plunking our overall record down to 5-4 for the season. We’ll try to get back on track by fading this season’s Cinderella, UCLA.
The Jets should take notice of what is going on at James Madison University.
Billy Napier is in charge now, but the previous two head coaches in Harrisonburg were Curt Cignetti, now with the defending champion Indiana Hoosiers, and Bob Chesney, the orchestrator of a dazzling turnaround in his first year in charge of UCLA.
Coming off a 3-9 season, the college football world was wondering if the Bruins’ leap to the Big Ten was a mistake. Ten months later, UCLA is one of three undefeated teams remaining in FBS (Miami, Utah are the others).
They’re very likely to keep that streak going with Nevada (3-4) in town for what is essentially a tune-up game ahead of a stretch run that will see the Bruins travel to and from the Midwest for games against Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan and then USC.
The scheduling of this visit from the Wolfpack was especially prescient.
UCLA lost starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava for the season back on Oct. 10, so this gives his deputy, Ty Dieffenbach, a chance to accrue more reps against a bottom-rung opponent before setting his sights on getting the Bruins to the Big Ten Championship.
There is just one problem. Nevada’s defense, led by potential NFLer Dylan LaBarbera, is no joke.
It’s been a really strange season in Reno. The Wolfpack have endured some really ugly losses to Montana State and Middle Tennessee State, but they’ve also sprinkled in some rollicking wins over Western Kentucky, UTEP, and San Jose State, plus a couple of feel-good losses to Air Force and North Dakota State.
The latter was especially impressive, as Nevada held the Bison to just 4.9 yards per play in the Fargodome. The end result was a two-score loss to NDSU, but under the hood things looked pretty rosy for Nevada. That’s been the theme of the entire season for Jeff Choate’s team.
Although they’ve won just three of their first seven games and are likely to miss out on a bowl game, the Wolfpack boast a decent statistical profile.
Nevada’s defense ranks 18th in yards per play allowed (4.5), fifth in yards allowed per pass (5.6) and fourth in third-down percentage. The offense lags a bit, but it’s not hopeless. The Wolfpack average 5.5 yards per play with the ball, which is good enough for 64th in FBS.
A Group of 6 team with those numbers should be better than 3-4 against the 115th-toughest schedule in FBS.
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Perhaps Nevada’s statistical profile is misleading and this team just lacks the talent needed to be consistent, or maybe they’ve just been unfortunate (0-2 in one-possession games) and are underrated.
No matter which side you land on, it doesn’t change the fact that this 22.5-point spread is a pretty hefty ask of the Bruins under these conditions. They’re starting a backup quarterback and hosting a non-conference team in the middle of a miraculous chase for a spot in the Big Ten Championship.
Chesney’s run-heavy approach will also keep the clock moving, which is never a good thing when you need to win by a margin this wide.
The Play: Nevada +22.5 (-110, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
