In the late game on Thursday night, two former NL Cy Young candidates will face off as Walker Buehler takes the baseball for the Padres opposite Mariners starter Luis Castillo.
The Mariners (8-10) are struggling a bit compared to how they were billed as early American League favorites alongside the Yankees.
Meanwhile, the Padres (11-6) have the second-best record in the National League but still opened as slight underdogs in this matchup despite the better early-season results.
Castillo has really struggled so far for the Mariners, with a 6.92 ERA through three games and poor peripheral stats that raise some concerns.
Hitters have an expected batting average of .287 against Castillo early on, with a 93 MPH average exit velocity against opposing batters, in the bottom 10 percent of all of baseball.
It’s a small sample size, which is why the odds are what they are, but it’s hard to ignore what Buehler has also accomplished early on.
He’s actually showing signs of reclaiming his former self with an uptick in velocity up to 94.5 MPH so far this year, up significantly from the 93.7 MPH it was in 2024.
Buehler is also walking fewer batters so far, including zero walks in eight innings last time out against the Rockies, arguably his best performance in several years.
Buehler averaged 4.4 walks per nine innings last season, a number that has decreased a bit, down to 3.6 walks per nine this year.
That’s still a far cry from his 2019 to 2021 levels, where he was a perennial Cy Young candidate, but perhaps there’s some light at the end of the tunnel for him in San Diego.
Given that Buehler’s peripheral stats have improved significantly early on, I’ll take a stab at the underdog that is playing much better through the season’s first few weeks.
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The Padres lead the majors in hard-hit percentage (46.6 percent) while the Mariners are near the bottom of the barrel in that category (34.4 percent).
THE PLAY: Padres moneyline (+108, Polymarket)
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