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It may not be the most visible hot seat in college football, but the clock is ticking on Phil Longo’s tenure at Sam Houston State.
Longo is 3-16 as head coach of the Bearkats. He did have a tough gig, replacing K.C. Keeler after a 10-win campaign in 2024, but it clearly isn’t working out for the New Jersey native in Huntsville.
A win over Missouri State on Tuesday could give Longo some breathing room, but a loss could spell the end of his reign.
Longo’s Bearkats are 6.5-point underdogs on the road.
Sam Houston State vs. Missouri State prediction
The most disappointing part of Longo’s stint at Sam Houston is that the offense has been dreadful. Known as a disciple of the Air Raid, and a sharp offensive mind, the thought was that, at the very least, the Bearkats would be able to score. Nobody was expected Sam Houston State to rock the world, but they were expected to be watchable.
The opposite has happened.
Sam Houston State is averaging just 13.7 points per game (133rd in FBS) and 4.3 yards per play (131st). Given Longo’s pedigree it’s no shock that the Bearkats throw the ball more than just about anybody else in college football, but the results are not great.
Sam Houston State ranks 117th in yards per pass and they’re giving up sacks on 8.23 percent of snaps, the 107th-worst mark in FBS.
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It’s bad on every level.
Things aren’t going particularly well for Missouri State, but the Grizzlies are at least bringing a somewhat competent attack to this game. The Grizzlies are clipping at 5.3 yards per play (80th in FBS) and have scored 62 points over their last two contests.
This may seem like a big number to lay with a bad team, but Sam Houston’s situation is toxic, and it’s hard to see it getting better on Tuesday.
The Play: Missouri State -5.5 (-108, BetMGM)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
