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The Browns have lost two games in a row and will be thrilled to be home in front of their fans after road games in Nashville, Pittsburgh, and New Orleans over the past three weeks.
They host the Texans in Week 10, who are making their usual midseason surge after winning three of their past four games.
Despite the records — Texans are 3-5 and Browns are 5-4 — it’s the Texans who are the favorites, laying 4.5 points on the road. The Over/Under, which is listed at 40.5, suggests this could be a low-scoring game.
Texans vs. Browns prediction
The Browns have made a habit of playing close games. They nearly came back in an overtime thriller against the Saints last week with Shedeur Sanders at quarterback.
This week, Deshaun Watson is slated to return to his starting role as the signal caller after a week on the sidelines with concussion symptoms.
Watson has the second-most fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives in the NFL this season, and the Browns have been competitive in nearly every game they’ve played.
While the Browns can celebrate being resilient, their poor offense is putting them in positions that require end-of-game theatrics. The Browns are 29th in scoring this season, but they have the pieces to do good things on offense. Their defense has bailed them out as well, allowing just 21.8 points per game and racking up the fourth-most sacks (26) in the league.
That unit will be crucial for the Browns, who need to slow down a Texans offense that has been rolling. C.J. Stroud has thrown 16 touchdowns to just two interceptions, but those numbers are inflated after he threw five scores against the Chargers last week.
Houston’s defense, which was one of the best last season, has regressed during this campaign to an average unit, especially its secondary, which is allowing the sixth-most passing yards per game.
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I think the Browns defense can put enough pressure on Stroud to bring this game into the mud and give themselves a chance to stay within range.
The Browns are 3-0 against the spread as home underdogs this season.
I’m holding my nose and betting the Browns to keep that trend alive here.
The Pick: Browns +4.5 (-105, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
