SEATTLE — A day ago, the United States appeared to be staring at the biggest match in modern history without its most dangerous striker. Then FIFA’s stunning decision to suspend Folarin Balogun’s red-card ban landed like a lightning strike across the soccer world, instantly transforming the mood inside the American camp and reshaping the tactical landscape ahead of Monday night’s Round of 16 showdown with Belgium.
USMNT head coach Mauricio Pochettino tried to downplay the impact the news had on his players Sunday afternoon.
“For us it was a normal thing,” Pochettino said when asked how training was after the team heard the news. “Our power is in the 26 players. Tomorrow, maybe I will decide to put Balogun on the bench. Who knows? It’s about the team.”
But the players couldn’t hide their excitement.
“Lit” was the word used by defender Chris Richards to describe the atmosphere on the team bus when they found out Balogun would be available.
“Knowing that we’re going to have him around tomorrow helps so much and gives us a big boost,” admitted Christian Pulisic.
The Americans, slight underdogs before the ruling, suddenly became favorites to advanceat roughly -126, while Belgium drifted toward even money. Those numbers reflect more than Balogun’s goal-scoring ability. They reflect gravity.
The U.S. has beaten Belgium just once in six meetings, and the ghosts of the heartbreaking 2014 World Cup defeat will inevitably resurface. Yet this American team bears almost no resemblance to that one. Belgium still carries several veterans from that victory. The U.S. carries something different: the confidence and technical quality to meet Belgium on equal footing instead of merely surviving.
And the blueprint to beat Belgium already exists, albeit one that will need to be tweaked to stop a team that almost mirrors them offensively.
In victories over Paraguay, Australia and Bosnia-Herzegovina, Pochettino’s squad controlled tempo from the opening whistle. Rather than allowing opponents to dictate physicality or slow the game into a grinding affair, the Americans played on their own terms with aggressive pressing, quick combinations and relentless movement. Balogun’s return allows that approach to remain intact and keeps the U.S. dangerous from the sides.
Before Sunday’s decision, Pochettino appeared destined to choose between Ricardo Pepi’s holdup play or Haji Wright’s pace in behind. Both offer useful qualities, but each changes the personality of the attack. Balogun does not require compromise. He blends both styles while adding the one ingredient nobody else on the roster provides: fear.
Belgium’s defenders must constantly account for his movement, his instinctive first-time finishing and his willingness to drift into channels before exploding into the penalty area. Every step they take toward Balogun creates space somewhere else. And that space is where players like Pulisic and Weston McKennie thrive.
Belgium has dominated possession throughout the tournament, controlling 57 percent of the ball while producing an impressive field tilt. Yet those statistics have often masked an attack searching for rhythm. Belgium has shown vulnerabilities throughout the tournament despite reaching the Round of 16. The Red Devils needed a late comeback against Senegal after trailing 2-0 into the 82nd minute and scored just once across draws with Egypt and Iran before finally erupting against New Zealand.
“Belgium has unbelievable players with experience. Unbelievable team, one of the contenders of this World Cup,” Pochettino said. “We have to improve from March. I think we improve. This is different. This is the World Cup.”
Belgium remains dangerous because Kevin De Bruyne can unlock a defense with one pass and Romelu Lukaku needs only one opportunity to change a match. Jérémy Doku and Leandro Trossard stretch defenses with pace and direct dribbling.
But Belgium’s structure also leaves opportunities — opportunities the Americans must capitalize on to win.
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Much of its possession funnels through the middle before being sprayed wide, while center backs Brandon Mechele and Arthur Theate prefer protecting space instead of aggressively stepping into challenges. Senegal repeatedly exposed those tendencies by attacking down the flanks, creating overloads with adventurous fullbacks before cutting dangerous balls back into the penalty area.
That is precisely what the U.S. has excelled at in this tournament and where the United States can strike.
Antonee Robinson and Sergiño Dest have been among America’s most influential attacking outlets throughout the World Cup, combining with Pulisic, McKennie and Malik Tillman. Balogun’s return magnifies every one of those patterns because defenders can no longer cheat toward the wings without leaving the tournament’s most clinical American finisher unattended.
“We have to improve and be more consistent,” Belgium manager Rudi Garcia admitted Sunday. “At times we’ve played really good, at times we were poorer on the pitch.”
Consistency may ultimately be the deciding factor.
For the first time in decades, the U.S. is not simply hoping to survive against one of Europe’s giants.
It has every reason to believe it can beat one.
