Massive swing in LA mayoral race as shock new poll released with just days to go

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The race for Los Angeles mayor has seen another plot twist.

Mayor Karen Bass has erased a massive polling lead from socialist Nithya Raman to tie the race at 40% support among likely voters, according to a UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll released Wednesday.

As many as 19% of voters are undecided, the poll said, with the election days away. The poll surveyed 2,197 likely city voters online between Oct. 19 and Oct. 25 and has a margin of error of three percentage points.

It comes after a California Post-McLaughlin & Associates poll saw the socialist Raman lead Bass 46.7% to 38.8% in a head-to-head matchup, with 13.5% undecided.

The mayor’s campaign took a victory lap with the positive poll result, saying that they believe the momentum is on their side.

“The momentum in this race is with Karen Bass,” campaign spokesperson Alex Stack said in a statement.

“Ever since Angelenos got their ballots, Nithya Raman has made headlines for all the wrong reasons — voters know they can’t trust her on public safety and other key issues,” Stack added. “And with the announcement of Rick Caruso’s support earlier this week, Mayor Bass is in the driver’s seat to win over the remaining undecided voters, turn out her base, and earn a second term.”

Most of Bass’ renewed support comes from former Spencer Pratt voters. She gained 19 points in support from Pratt voters from this poll to a similar one in September, with 41% backing her, 45% still undecided, and 14% voting for Raman. Raman lost 2% of Pratt voters in the new poll.

Election analysts believe Pratt voters will be a key constituency for either candidate to tap into after he lost a chance at the general election in the mayoral primary.

Dan Schnur, a political analyst and professor at USC, said Pratt voters have been contemplating which candidate to back and have started prioritizing Bass for her public safety focus.

“These Pratt voters demonstrated their interest by turning out in the spring. So they’ve been weighing their options, and right now they appear to be prioritizing what they see as Bass’s law-and-order credentials over Raman’s outsider status,” he said.

Most Pratt voters backed him because he was the most conservative and “most destructive” candidate in the race, Schnur said.

DiCamillo believes the latest poll is a great result for Bass, whose campaign has been on the assault against Raman.

“It’s certainly a breath of fresh air for Bass to see the race close. She’ll probably feel the campaign is having the effect she wants it to have, which is to put more focus on Raman and put Raman on the defensive,” he said.

Schnur concurred, adding that Bass initially seemed “somewhat uncomfortable attacking another candidate as too progressive, but she’s gotten much better at it.”

“Her criticisms of Raman on public safety are clearly making an impact with this audience,” he added.

Bass has targeted Raman mainly on her experience, notably nicking the city councilmember during their final debate.

“You are not ready for prime time,” she told Raman.

The socialist has also received extensive criticism from LA’s law enforcement leader, LAPD Chief Jim McDonnell. Raman said in a recent interview with ABC 7 that McDonnell “lost the trust of our immigrant community here in LA.” 

McDonnell fired back in exclusive comments to The California Post.

“It’s easy to make a broad statement like that,” McDonnell said. “I would challenge somebody: Is that a handful of activists talking, or is that, you know, a greater feeling of discomfort in the bigger community?”

The poll also surveyed voters on their top issue in the City of Angels. Nearly half of voters, 43%, deemed homelessness their top issue. Public safety came in at 29%, with affordable housing tying for second with the same percentage of voters.

Bass won the LA mayoral primary with 34% support over Raman’s 29% and Pratt’s 25.5%. The mayor led most primary polls. Raman had flipped the script during general election season to supplant Bass as the polling leader.

Early voting has already begun in the Nov. 3 mayoral election.

And voters appear to be leaning the incumbent’s way based on recent polling.

“The truth is, there’s no way to know whether the race is dead tied, whether Bass or Raman has a small lead. But what we do know is the trajectory is in Bass’s favor,” Schnur said.

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